August 12, 2003, There are cease fires, and there are cease fires...
Two Israelis were killed in two separate bombing attacks, one a suicide blast in a suburb of Tel Aviv and the other in the West Bank. The first attack of this kind in over a month, I think its safe to say that at least some terror groups have decided that they don't feel like waiting the whole three month rebuilding/cease fire period.
I think few, if any, Israelis seriously believed that the extremely weak Palestinian Authority mandate of PA PM Abu Mazen was likely to be able to make much of a dent against the entrenched terror groups such as Hamas; his stance of meekly negotiating "voluntary cease fires" was hardly confidence-inspiring. On the other hand, his power hold is tenuous; PA leader Arafat still runs things from his bombed out Ramallah compound, and if Abu Mazen does anything too risky, Arafat will shoot it down.
The perennial problem with the "road map" is that the destination of a "two-state solution" may now be clear to all, but no one can envision the highway over the large chasm between here and there. For the nth time, regardless of Mr. Mazen's motives, Mr. Arafat's are clear: he likes the status quo of a non-state state where he has little if any accountability so he has a never-ending opportunity to siphon off aid money from Europe and simultaneously preside over the terror groups' protection rackets at the expense of rank and file Palestinians. He can tell Palestinians (in Arabic) that his goal is driving the Jews into the Med; he can tell the rest of us (in English) that he is a national liberation leader who wants what is best for his people, i.e., the "two state solution"; he of course, wants neither outcome.
So, in the interim, we have this shit. The fence between Israel and the West Bank proceeds unabated, and I understand, is very popular on the Israeli side of the fence.
In the end, Israel provides a handy lesson (and cautionary tale) into the whole "war on terror" concept. Saddam Hussein is no longer doling out stipend checks to families of suicide bombers (at least not that we know of), and yet, the terror groups seem to have little trouble finding Palestinian youths willing to off themselves (and take Israelis with them) in the name of the cause. Israeli reprisals just fuel the next round of Palestinian violence. But then, if the United States believed that if we had only "assassinated" Mohammed Atta and Osama bin Laden in early September, 2001 we could have averted 9-11, shouldn't we have done so? Maybe not at that time, but now does anyone doubt what the United States would do? Unlike the United States, Israel did not commit hundreds of thousands of troops to its "preemption", though its civilians and soldiers are at risk just by going outside (a risk somewhat more attenuated in the United States, no matter how paranoid we want to be about it).
We'll see. If somehow the "road map" helps the Israelis and Palestinians reach a political resolution to their decades old battle, I will personally acknowledge that this is a great thing, and the American government should be heartily congratulated for achieving something none of its predecessors could. I'm not all that worried about having to do that, I'm afraid.
Comments
I don't think it's correct to refer to Abu Mazen as "Mr. Mazen." It's a sort of nom-de-guerre, not a first and last name.
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