December 2, 2004, 'Tis the Season to be (Melan)choly...
Out of nowhere, new unemployment claims jumped unexpectedly for last week, to around 350,000 (around 25,000 higher than expected). Certainly this is possibly explained as a statistical anomoly from a volatile holiday season... by next week, this could easily "correct".
If, on the other hand, this is evidence of a more persistent trend of economic weakness, then, coming as it does at the peak consumer spending season, this does not bode well...
Not to worry. Reality is no longer important; we'll just wait for the White House announcement to tell us the actual significance (or insignificance) of this event.