February 15, 2006, Deadeye Dick Career Death-watch (and contest!)?
The Vice-President broke his half-week long silence today by giving a statement in the friendly confines of Fox News to Brit Hume... Cheney admitted that it was his own damned fault that he shot his good friend Harry Whittington, and Cheney noted that he had "a beer with lunch". This is the clearest confirmation possible that there indeed was at least some level of alcohol involved, and hence, there was significance in the fact that local law enforcement officials were kept at bay until the following morning. "One beer" of course could be a 12 ounce can, a pint glass, a quart bottle, a keg... unfortunately, the veep wasn't more forthcoming on that little pint point.
Obviously, the Administration has some uses for the Cheney fiasco, such as covering up for the fact that the Senate GOP majority may be tiring of any kind of inquiry into possible abuses and the certain illegality associated with the NSA domestic eavesdropping "program". Or, the shorter version, "Olympia Snowe has been threatened with a primary challenge and doesn't think she can win both it and the general election, so if tyranny is the way it is, well it's better than being voted out of office."
Notwithstanding that, the Vice-President did a number of really dumb things with this. For one thing, he showed us that he engages in incredibly reckless activities. The fact of the matter is, it could well have been Harry blasting him full of metal pellets, and no Secret Service agent is likely fast enough to intervene when the veep has arranged a private party in a remote area involving elderly participants, fire-arms... and alcohol...
Then he screws around with letting anyone know about this, in such a manner as sure making it look like interfering with a local investigation (can you say "obstruction of justice"?) Then, politically, his silence allowed some really stupid activity, like JEB and McLellan mocking the victim, even as he was having a heart attack as a result of having been shot in the chest. Worst of all, Mr. Scaife and his minions have turned "the press" from being about "the public's right to know" into "the public's right to be entertained"... i.e., Dick has just handed the press the Bush Administration's Monica-gate story and Chappaquiddick rolled into one. For no God damned reason, other than he was embarassed about having a beer (albeit possibly a rather large one). There is no law against hunting while sloshed in Texas that anyone knows of, so... it's more about embarassment (and possible negligent homicide had poor Harry not pulled through, though it looks like he will...)
Coming off a week when it was disclosed that Scooter revealed that Dick ordered him to leak damaging classified information to try to burn both Plame and Wilson, let's just say... Dick's stock hasn't exactly been soaring ...
We'll see. This whole overreaction to a little huntin' accident... I mean, come on, Dick. Do you really think Al Qaeda wants to see your sensitive side? (The line of the day is from Vermont Senator Pat Leahy, who suggested that given that Cheney told him to go f*** himself, "I guess I got off easy.")
Anyway... before Fitzgerald maybe indicts or something, this might be an excellent time to consider stepping aside "for health reasons". "Family reasons" will certainly do, as will "personal reasons." For those who guess closest to Dick's last day in office, a special prize is in order (lunch at some 4-star restaurant in NYC, my treat, or in "your town" assuming I ever get there? How 'bout that one...); bonus points for guessing the reason Dick gives. Of course, sitting where I do, I'll take "January 20, 2009" as the safest bet...
But that dream scenario (for some) of having Condi step up to the vice-presidency, where she would be the automatic frontrunner for the GOP's candidate for president in 2008, might have just started in motion... We'll see... take your best guess...
Comments
"For those who guess closest to Dick's last day in office, a special prize is in order (lunch at some 4-star restaurant in NYC, my treat, or in "your town" assuming I ever get there? How 'bout that one...); bonus points for guessing the reason Dick gives."
My guess, for just now, would be somewhere around February-April, 2007.
It's far enough away from the shooting that it can be claimed to be completely unrelated, and it's after the new Congress is sworn in in January; after that, though, the Administration only get diminishing benefits from the new Veep, due to, obviously, less and less time in office for the newbie.
And my guess for the reason stated will be the boringly obvious: health. It's just necessary for the President to have a person in office who is able to devote full attention and energy to supporting his agenda and making sure these fine policies move ahead, and alas, I am no longer able to devote that level of full-time full energy any more, blah, blah.
True, it's hard to imagine words even vaguely resembling that coming out of Cheney's mouth, so I wouldn't say, for now, that there's more than maybe 60% odds of this happening, but, hey, there's not much downside to my answering your query. :-)
Obviously Ms. Rice seems like the most obvious choice, but it really is possible that she's not interested. In which case, the "who" becomes rather harder to guess. Neither Frist nor McCain nor Guiliani nor Hagel seem terribly likely picks for Bush, although I suppose Frist is the least unlikely. But I don't observe that he seems to have won particular popularity amongst Republicans, Senate or otherwise, grassroots or otherwise, since his ascension to Majority Leader, and I lean towards the notion that one pull upwards from Bush may be all that he's going to have ever had coming. But, of course, I dunno. Might Bush do his oft-typical contrarian thing and pick McCain, after all? A little hard to believe, but not absolutely inconceivable.
Still, yet someone else seems more likely to me. Hard to say, who, though. The list of Definitely Not is far, far easier. (Not Powell, not Rumsfeld, not Chertoff....)
Should all this come about, which I wouldn't count on, I suspect the one key to guessing the Who would be remembering the importance to Bush of a) his liking them, b) their demonstrated loyalty to him, and c) his liking them.
Here's a wild outlier wacky thought: Vice-President Gonzalez.
Then I'd start trying to figure out who is Bush's favorite Governor.
And then I'd ask how much Bush does or does not like Sam Brownback. And then look at what other Senators he most likes.
So, there you go: my contribution, which is mine.
Posted by Gary Farber at February 16, 2006 11:12 AM
Well I'm willing to travel to NYC for a fine dinner. I like Gary's time frame so I'm going to pick an exact date, April 1, 2007. He will step down for personal reasons, implying it has something to do with family issues. He'll never admit he's one step away from death's door, the ambulance in his entourage nothwithstanding.
Posted by Libby Spencer at February 16, 2006 11:59 AM
July 27, 2006. Resignation due to overwhelming political pressure...
Well, Dick had had a long day in Washington. To begin with, from his office window, he swears he could see somebody wearing a peace t-shirt. What nerve? Also, he walked past Edward Kennedy in the hall and he could just TELL-- that bastard was thinking about "equality" or "legality" or "above 2,000 death toll", or some crap like that. That run in with Kennedy caused the vein in his head to nearly triple in size. On top of that, the President keeps calling. Seems he needs help deciding between "Family Values" or "Outrageously Non-Compassionate Religously Fanatic Concervative" to put in the background of his next public speech. To top it all off, turns out somebody leaked to the press that he had drank a 6 pack the day he shot Harry. Damn. Dick had lost it, and he had to take it out. So, just like he had a few months previous, he found the nearest weapon he could and "peppered" a few folk.
Unfortunately, he couldn't get away with this one, so it seems the Republican leadership is kind of ticked. Sam Brownback even referred to Dick's actions as "deplorable". I mean come on, the man only peppered a couple freshman representatives. So, for Dick, it looks like the fat lady is singing now.
Replacement? Jeb Bush... Ahh... The Bush... it's everywhere.
Or at least that's what I predict will happen...
Posted by Ben at February 16, 2006 10:43 PM
I noticed the NSA comment above, there appears to be a solution, and a way to address this: [ http://www.thenextleft.com/blogatory/archives/2006/02/force_congress.html ]
Posted by Constant at February 17, 2006 5:16 PM