This week’s visit to our friends at Beijing’s People’s Daily will give us a brief look at all three members of the Axis of Evil TM.
First, from Iran, we see that the Iranian foreign ministry is quibbling with the recent purported agreement with European powers Britain, France and Germany to suspend uranium enrichment activities, though Iran (“with the support of nations from the non-aligned movement”) is seeking to modify aspects of the agreement, including keeping 20 centrifuges “for research”. Note that the USA continues to accuse Iran of developing weapons. Our problem here is that (1) we have no real military leverage– we are overspent in Iraq right now, and short of some bombing runs which I don’t think would get the job done, are reduced to “diplomatic” leverage against a nation we’ve had no relations with for a quarter century, (2) the rest of the world has no leverage either, other than, perhaps “moral suasion”, or worse (3) other than the USA and the EU, the rest of the world has little interest in whether or not Iran develops nuclear weapons, which they perceive will be aimed at Israel, the EU or USA, and not them. I have suggested that this IS an area for our friends in Beijing: pointing out to President Hu that the USA being subject to nuclear blackmail (or even having to deal with its principal client Israel subject to nuclear blackmail) is bad for business. I would have liked a credible military threat, of course, but Bush-family-bogeyman Saddam Hussein was far more important, don’t you know.
Closer to home (if your home is… Beijing), comes to this report that (inexplicably) North Korea is suspending work on is light water nuclear reactor. This reactor, not usually used for weapons, is the product of our 1994 agreement with the DPRK to suspend its weapons program– the deal that wildman Kim Jong Il’s government broke around 2000, and caused all sorts of trouble. My guess is that the North Koreans are simply diverting resources to their actual weapons programs, rather than something merely designed to generate energy for their desperately poor nation. Once again– the answer as I see it is to make it clear to the Chinese that nuclear blackmail of us (and our key clients in Seoul and Tokyo) would be very bad for business. Here, the Chinese have far more direct leverage. Again, my view is that the ultimate deal should be buying North Korea’s nuclear program lock, stock and barrel, and while we’re at it, buying down its conventional army (the kind of aid package I’m talking about would cost a fraction of our little Iran adventure, btw). Again, though– the Chinese would have to broker it. I have every confidence in their ability to do it (though none in our own…)
And finally, its back to Iraq, where the interim government states that (God willing) the January 30th elections will not be delayed (the Sunnis be damned, even though 17 political parties, including Interim PM Allawi’s own party have called for a six month delay, and the American elections have safely returned the Imperium). This is not unexpected: the January 30th elections are a key part of American domestic policy, possibly to enable the Pentagon to declare victory and start drawing down troops so that they might be available for an adventure in Iran or Syria (or something). I’ll just say this: the Iraqis are a resilient people. This might somehow work out, despite the ham-handed American actions which have turned the country into a complete and total hash (key stat: child malnutrition has doubled and gone back to the same level as the height of sanctions; we have made things far worse than under the discredited Oil for Food Program; but I digress). In short, I am convinced that the best gift we can give the Iraqi people is to leave as soon after their election as possible. Given domestic political imperatives, the Bush Administration may well agree with this sentiment– doing a double-back-flip on those who voted for it thinking that the perceived pussy John Kerry would “cut and run”. Well, time will tell.
This has been Axis of Evil TM roundup.
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Good point about China having a vested interest in the US economy. While you didn’t mention it, China’s purchase of large amounts on US debt furthur supports your point.
While this is good for diplomacy, I can’t help but worry about the end result for American workers.
Our principal investors these days are the growing-like-topsy Chinese, the moribund Japanese, the Canadians, I suppose, and of course, our good recycling petro-dollar buddies from Riyadh. Of this group, only one (obviously) would DARE threaten us (or at least, our largest city) militarily in order to avoid dealing with its domestic problem (guess which one that might be; extra points for naming the Ambassador whose wife supported a couple of highjackers AND who gets to sit in on OUR President’s intelligence briefings, don’t you know.)
Frankly, while the Chinese are obviously the second nastiest on that list, they really don’t want to see us suffer. We are the principal (in many cases only) foreign market for their tchotchkes.
Result for our workers? Mixed as always. Remember– less than 10% of our job loss relates to so-called outsourcing. Most relates to our economy just being dormant (not a small part because our currency is overvalued, keeping many of our export industries down, although also reducing the cost of our borrowing, which as you noted, is largely bought up by the Chinese (and eats up something like an inconceivable 80% of plantary savings. OUR deficits… THIS ONE STUPID COUNTRY. Borrowing like mad so OUR millionaires don’t have to pay taxes.)
While, in the end, we will all likely end up working for masters in Beijing, given the Hong Kong situation (and Taiwan), I guess I can only conclude the answer is mixed. We’ll get more cheap stuff, but we won’t have any legal, environmental or other protections… kind of like where we’re going anyway.
TMV’s Monday Mania
It’s time for Monday Mania, when The Moderate Voice gives you a virtual Hometown Buffet (but it’s fresher and less fattening) of links to interesting posts to help you get your work week off to a thought-provoking start. Note that
TD, why don’t you ask me before you make pronouncements about my intentions. I thought we were buds.
Yes, I am saving money on the nuclear program, but not diverting it to other weapon supplies. I don’t know if you live in the real world, but European blond hookers cost a fortune.
Ha Ha Ha!!