the talking dog

June 26, 2003, Hamas Hudna?

Well, now that I have finally learned how to spell "Intifada", apparently, a new Arabic word to describe the tactical cease-fire proposed between the "Palestinian Authority" (sponsors of the Al-Aksa Martyrs Brigade terrorists) and Hamas (sponsors of terrorists under that name): hudna. Israeli officials, who often wax poetic, described the latest cease-fire proposal as "poison wrapped in honey".

Of course, Hamas has purportedly conditioned its acceptance of a cease-fire on Israeli agreements to halt strategic assassination of Hamas operatives and officials. The Israeli government, officially has refused to accept this condition. One gets the feeling that unofficially, perhaps, things are different.

Well, we come to an interesting position. Israel is well aware that it is watching a hopelessly corrupt, though arguably not crazy, Fatah movement reach a "cease fire" deal with a hopelessly crazy, though arguably not corrupt, Hamas movement. Many Israelis will simply throw their hands in the air, and note this for what it is: a bad thing, and Israel should ignore it. I agree.

Neither group is capable of one, basic fundamental change-- a recognition of their inevitable, total defeat at the hands of Israel, particularly if they continue to give Sharon and the hardliners an excuse to keep it up (and they will- they can't help themselves; Arafat wants the status quo to continue, and needs the deluded Hamas-- which believes it can ultimately defeat Israel, to keep up the violence to maintain that status qup and maintain Arafat's protection rackets).

While both Fatah and Hamas are capable of inflicting great suffering (much Israeli suffering of course, but most of the suffering ultimately inures to Palestinians), neither will drive the Jews into the sea. Ever. Israel has more than the military capacity, and the longer the Intifada drags on, in my opinion, Israel will ultimately regain the moral and political capacity, to utterly crush them both.

In the end, there is only one workable solution. And it is not a negotiated settlement. It has many variations, including a period of internationally supervised mandate, for example. But it comes down to the same thing: the United States (not the "Quartet", not the United Nations, JUST the United States) more or less imposes final borders (accommodating a contiguous area with no or at least almost no Israeli settlements, and decent water rights and land to the Palestinian state), a compensation package in lieu of "right of return", and the divvying up of Jerusalem. The Palestinians will then select a government satisfactory to the United States, or, as we will ultimately do in Iraq, we will select their government for them. And that's it. Nothing nice-- no "self-determination" (unless we like it)-- the Palestinians get a state in which Arafat and his thug minions can have no power, or they get nothing, and that's just about it. (By the way, I'm not advocating this particular exercise of American power; I am merely suggesting that this is really the only path to political resolution I can envision. The Israelis and nearby Arabs have been at each other's throats for decades-- and I'm sure they can live like that indefinitely.)

Don't look for anything to happen soon on this front-- under no circumstances will anything happen before the November 2004 elections (unless, of course, God tells Dubya something different). But that's it: these two parties have lots of political problems with resolving this between each other. Failing that, an imposed solution is required (or at least one not negotiated publicly!) The hudna is just another Arabic word for hustle.

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I don't think that the US-imposed-solution scenario you describe is politically realistic. The Palestinians aren't going to go along with anything peaceful unless they see a united international front that demands it. Namely, if the US is Israel's only solid/semi-solid backer and everyone else supports the Palestinians, they'll try to string things out in the hope of gaining an advantage. When the Palestinians look around at the 190 or so countries at the UN, how many do they see supporting them against Israel? Over 180, at least, with the only exceptions being the US and its handful of across-the-line voting partners like Micronesia. So if the US attempts to declare and implement a solution that the Palestinians don't like--and any deal that recognizes Israel as a Jewish state will be unacceptable to most of them--they'll just keep agitating and complaining for the Europeans and everyone else to bail them out. No way will the Palestinians do anything productive without, at minimum, a united Western alliance exercising collective diplomatic pressure on them. The Europeans, love 'em or hate 'em (and I detest them on this particular issue), are completely relevant to what happens, whether anyone likes it or not.

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