August 9, 2003, Good thing we took out IRAQ...
This week's visit to Pravda gives us this irritating story that I haven't seen played in the American press: Axis of Evil TM member Iran is buying ballistic missiles from Axis of Evil TM member North Korea. It seems that the religious nuts from Iran have discovered something they need from the secular nuts in North Korea: ballistic missiles, that presumably can be used for carrying those nucular weapons that the Iranians are NOT developing.
In the end, if either nation, North Korea, or Iran, decided to launch a nuclear armed missile (or more than one missile) in the general direction of the United States (or Israel), the leadership of those nations (along with the rest of those nations) would be dead within 24 hours from the virtually automatic retaliation.
Obviously, a key part of the Iranian and North Korean strategy is to convince us that their leadership are less than fully rational, and might commit suicide anyway, just to inflict some damage on us. And I'm certainly convinced that at least one (if not both) of those countries may have that attribute.
When you cut through all the bullshit that the President has dumped upon us all, the basis for the pre-emptive war (of aggression) against Iraq officially came down to one word: non-proliferation. We didn't want Saddam Hussein sharing nuclear weapons with Al Qaeda terrorists. Period. A sufficiently irrational fear of this was built up during the drumbeats of war that no one asked any questions at all as to the likelihood of this; if anything, the post-Saddam chaos has increased the likelihood that Saddam's really bad shit fell into the hands of terrorists (though to be fair, the Bush Administration was probably well aware that no such really bad shit WMDs actually exist).
What the President's rhetoric and belligerence and following through on his [insane] promise to effect regime change has accomplished is, ahem, the opposite of non-proliferation. Two of the most unpredictable and hence dangerous states on the planet, Iran and North Korea, have treated the significance of the Bush policies as: we had better ACCELERATE our nuclear aspirations, as an insurance policy against American invasion. Yes, they were bad dudes anyway, and were working on the bad shit for a long time. But I didn't sense the urgency on their part before the Iraq war drums were beating; we might have had some time to possibly make deals (i.e. bribes to bury the problem another 5 or 10 years into the future, like we've done before), options that are just no longer available. Indeed, with Iran-- time was on our side. The younger and more frustrated population may take out the mullahs on their own; now, in the interim, the mullahs will become a nuclear power.
The Axis of Evil TM, ladies and gentlemen: 2/3 of rogue states surveyed treat it as a lesson in self-fulfilling prophecy.
Comments
We didn't attack Iraq because it was a threat, but because it wasn't. We didn't attack them because they had a credible threat, but because they did not.
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