the talking dog

Pravda gives us this historical analysis of the United States in context with other great powers, and comes to the conclusion that the United States has had incredible luck historically, and that this cannot go on foever. At some point, luck runs out. The piece notes, for example, the silliness of Britain's attempting to maintain its hold on far-flung colonies resulting in the devastation of its shipping and navy. Its hard to equate bad tactics with bad luck.

Obviously, this is a tad simplistic. Some events have been fortuitous-- such as the American acquisition of territory- i.e., Alaska on the cheap, Louisana on the cheap, California on the cheap (so cheap, no one even remembers how we did it-- something about a cheap war with Spain, Mexico or somebody). Others, such as the failure of European powers to take advantage of the Civil War, are a little less clear to me. I think the view of European national interests a century and a half later (or similarly in the context of the First and Second World Wars) is a little bit of 20-20 hindsight. I suppose you could say that the whole package added up to substantial luck on the part of the United States.

But I would add the luckiest element of all: in our early stages, we were blessed with visionaries of the highest order. Few other nations had such a deep team in their early stages-- a George Washington, a Thomas Jefferson, a James Madison, a John Adams (or even a John Quincy Adams), all of whom had some kind of vision of the grand experiment they were undertaking, without the need to highjack it a la a Napoleon or a Mao or a Lenin. These visionaries (no, they weren't perfect, some of them owned slaves, for example) were nonetheless men of sufficient conscience, integrity and vision to have endowed us with the guts and spine of a system so strong, it has endured now for over two centuries. It has survived a Civil War. It survived World Wars. It survived a Bush in the White House, and will probably survive the current Administration.

Admittedly, this all took luck too-- but you often make your own luck. I suppose the ability to do that takes some luck too. So, in the manner you're all accustomed to...

I think what we are now doing in Iraq-- the insane spreading of our power and influence-- is analogous to Britain's wartime adventures. We are trying to maintain a global empire, and taking hits along the way because we are so stretched. This is the sort of thing credited with helping to cause the Soviet Union to collapse (attempting to expand its empire to Afghanistan-- not as true as we like to believe), as well as Britain, of course. Simply, unnatural empires are hard to hold together. The expansion of the American "empire" (actually, of course, projection of American power) has always been fraught with problems (having to evict the locals, for example, in much of North America), but even more so when the expansion goes beyond North America. Generally, such projections have been reasonably benign, but in the belief that a stable world (held together by us if necessary) is in our interest. (This is my own main reason for opposing our preemptive war; it opens up all sorts of possibilities that are contrary to an orderly world).

This orderly world is, of course, what Georgie and Dickie and Donnie may have decided to throw away in one fell swoop in order to "Get Saddam". If so, they have, inevitably, started America on an inevitable decline. But I'm sure anyone who thinks that is some sort of Saddamite or traitor.

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On July 31st, Condy Rice declared, in an interview for German television, that, "America [unlike the British, or the Soviets, for instance] has no imperial ambitions." Any "hits" the U.S. may suffer due to its expansion have nothing to do with its foreign policy and everything to do with its enemy's prejudices.

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