the talking dog

Hamas has vowed that it will assassinate Israeli PM Sharon in retaliation for a (failed) strike at Hamas leadership, including Hamas founder and "Spiritual Leader" Sheikh Yassin, which injured 15 (including Yassin) during a meeting at his residence in Gaza. Israel's policy of targeted assassinations has always been a controversial one, and interestingly, more controversial in cases like this where the strikes fail to hit their intended targets (or as more likely, take out innocent bystanders).

I have given up trying to understand anything that goes on with Sharon's thinking. There is no question that if this is a fight to the death with Yassin, then we can expect stepped up Hamas activities, which means more suicide bombings and more dead Israeli civilians. Hamas leadership may end up dead, but then, so may hundreds of Israelis (if not members of their leadership). Of course, Hamas generally needs little or no provocation for its murders anyway, now, does it?

Still, something is going on, insofar as Abu Mazen has tendered his resignation as PA PM , although PA strongman Arafat wants him to stay on . At this juncture, I have insufficient information to get a big picture read on this-- other than, again, Arafat playing something for his own advantage.

While Arafat is duplicitous about wanting the destruction of the Jewish state, Yassin and Hamas are unequivocal about wanting the destruction of the Jewish state. It appears that Arafat has played the "PA Prime Minister" thing with his typical mastery. As expected (by me, anyway) Arafat did not give up any meaningful power to Mazen, and hence, it was business as usual. I doubt many Israelis were fooled (though some were doubtless fooled enough by the 3-month "cease fire" to have attempted to return to "normal lives"). I certainly doubt Palestinians had much hope for change. It was the foolish American Administration (particularly the so-called Feith-Perle-Wolfowitz "cabal") and its "roadmap" that look like the fools.

To his credit, President George W. Bush initially said he preferred to leave the Israeli-Palestinian machinations to the parties (who would most likely not resolve anything on their own) but at least leave the United States out of it. Nope. Couldn't stay out. Road map. Intervention. Continued non-starters. His own record of failure, to go along with Clinton's, Bush I's, Reagan's, Carter's, Ford's, Nixon's, etc.

But that leads to the last point. There are many, including Sharon, and at one time, myself, who believe the "problem" came down to two words: "Yasir Arafat", and indeed, the calls for his exile are gaining decibel volume. I tend to believe that these were the same people who believed that the problems of the Middle East came down to "Saddam Hussein". So I'll just say that Arafat's removal is a necessary but not sufficient condition for ultimate resolution. Yes, as long as he breathes and maintains control in Ramallah, fundamental change (for the better, anyway) is not possible. But even if you remove him, its not like there is a nascent Palestinian liberal democracy there ready to spring into place. Israel could be trying to work with local Palestinian governments in the municipalities, and, for example, reward the better performing ones with pulled out settlement activity, fewer checkpoints, etc., until such institutions develop. But Israel has its own out-of-control politics operating in that sphere.

And so with "the settlements", like Arafat, I will say that their removal is a necessary but not sufficient prerequisite to an ultimate peace.

Perhaps as an interim measure, that trade could be made?

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Carter wasn't a failure in the Middle East--Camp David ended the era of wars by Arab states against Israel. This was a major diplomatic achievement, for which Carter gets too little credit.

Posted by William Burns at September 8, 2003 10:31 AM

William:
Carter got the damned NOBEL Peace Prize. How much more credit is he supposed to get? Anyway, your point is well-taken-- in the history of Mid-East diplomacy, I would say that the Egypt-Israel peace, albeit a cold one, is probably the shining moment, and for better or worse, the aspiration for all future "peace plans" (such as the Palestinians agreeing to being bought off with American aid money for peace.) I meant to take nothing away from Carter for that; however, Carter's record with matters Middle East was far from perfect, as you know.

Posted by the talking dog at September 8, 2003 08:54 PM

Good point about the Nobel Prize. I think that since Kissinger and Arafat won it, I have trouble thinking of it as an honor.

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