the talking dog

November 28, 2003, Money (That's What I Want)

Well, we can all hail the daring of the President to have pulled off his Thanksgiving in Baghdad maneuver. Even those of us who count ourselves as his political opponents realize that, aside from the obvious self-serving political value of the trip (without which it would not have taken place), it took monumental planning (indeed, after three years of perfecting an internal secrecy machine, the President finally established which members of the press corps he could trust with this, for example), not a small amount of risk if not guts (Iraq still being a war zone and all), and the brief visit will doubtless have a positive morale effect on forces in Iraq (as well as perhaps propaganda value against the insurgents). That said, in my book, after the Lincoln fiasco, the President just doesn't get to use the people in uniform he regards as pawns in this game as backdrops for his politically opportunistic photo-ops. But hey, that's just me.

Anyway, a far more important political event is playing out today: retailers' Black Friday, i.e., the tradtional biggest shopping day of the year, a key harbinger of the key Christmas retail season. The consensus is that sales will be better than last year's semi-dismal showing, though the issue remains: by how much? Sure-- we had 8.2% growth in the third quarter. And if its sustained in the 4th quarter, we got ourselves a little rally. But...

If economic growth goes back to stagnation level, employment remains soft, and consumer confidence does not strengthen, it seems that all the tough-guy military photo-ops in the world may not overcome what the public perceives as a government making their lives worse rather than better.

That said, its back to one of your talking dog's hobby horses: what does the Democratic candidate have to do to overcome Bush? Let us make two assumptions. First, assume that somehow, the June, 2004 Iraq sovereignty turnover works beautifully. American troops, while still in Iraq, are no longer getting picked off regularly. There is general international consensus that we have achieved a "successful" transition, and while not a democracy, ongoing problems in Iraq are taken off the table. Second, assume that the 8.2% third quarter growth is sustained, employment figures improve-- not dramatically-- but somewhat, and consumer confidence improves.

Well, if those assumptions are correct, the Democrats, right now, will be fucked. Not one Democrat is saying "Even if things work out (somehow)l, we could do better, and here's why." Just "Bush sucks". Well, that's not good enough-- not by a lot.
Whether the man himself is some kind of stealth genius, or more likely, is deftly handled by politically savvy masterminds, the result is the same: Bush, a minority president, is governing as if he won by a landslide, and Democrats seem to have no coherent response.

Recall how well the strategy of "yes, but Bush sucks" worked in 2002 midterm elections. Further, this strategy forces Democrats into the position of being the Dire News Donkeys-- praying that suffering for the American people increases in order to avoid the hard work of actually formulating both policies and explanations for those policies that overcome what Bush is doing.
Most people know in their gut that the current regressive tax cuts and their devastating effect on deficit levels are wrong and will prove deleterious, but there seems no articulate response (Edwards briefly noted that state and local taxes increased to offset the effect of federal income tax cuts, but that theme seems to have gotten lost).

Further, why is Terry McAuliffe-- personal caretaker of the Clinton legacy-- still in charge of the Democratic Party? Indeed, why is he even allowed in DNC headquarters, after the 2002 debacle? Some of us-- like me-- think maneuvers like keeping hopeless candidates like Moseley Braun, Kucinich and of course Sharpton in the debates is a deliberate attempt to weaken the stature of the frontrunners (designed to actually help Bush in '04, and hence, Hillary in '08).

Well, all of this needs to be thought about in more than mere knee-jerk responses of "Bush sucks" (even as I confess guilt to such knee jerk responses myself).

Let's get on this, people!

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