January 22, 2004, Granite State Graveyard?
Via Liberal Oasis (a great blog for those of you-- well, both of you, anyway-- who are unfamiliar with it), we give you the latest Boston Herald poll numbers out of New Hampshire, which turn this into a two man race, as I'll explain below. The breakdown is 31%-21%-16%-11%-4% (Kerry-Dean-Clark-Edwards-Lieberman).
If these numbers hold, of course, Howard Dean's campaign is effectively over. Yes, Kerry is also from the next state, but if the best Dean's vaunted organization and fundraising can get him is a 21% second place showing in the next door state, I think its over (which sucks, because I like him). However, even if Dean were to come from behind and overtake Kerry to win, the more interesting number (to me) is Wesley Clark's 16%. It appears that by-passing New Hampshire may have back-fired (assuming this number sticks). Clark, late to the game as it was, focused his efforts on New Hampshire; I certainly think he could survive a second place to Dean, where he was before Iowa, but I don't think a third place finish behind Kerry and Dean bodes well for him. The big winner, of course, would be (once again) John Edwards, who, in Yankee country, is in double digits, easily poised to possibly even move into third (assuming Dean and Clark continue to slide). Lieberman, at 4%, barring a huge turnaround into beating at least one of the top four, should, like Dick Gephardt, gracefully exit, stage right.
So, assuming these numbers hold, Dean and Lieberman are finished, and Clark's campaign is severely wounded, pretty much requiring him (IMHO) to beat Edwards in South Carolina to have any real momentum. If Edwards were to then prevail in South Carolina, I would argue that Clark is pretty much done, and we have a Kerry vs. Edwards showdown on Super Tuesday (it should be clear by now who I'd be rooting for in such an event).
Its Thursday, 22 January; the primary is in five days. As we know from Iowa, that is several eternities. Howard Dean could atone for his non-concession speech, or he could build on it (I kind of liked it... but you would figure that). In the interim, of course, I formally announce... The New Hampshire blogburst.
Just as your talking dog was out front in being the only blog (I know of) with insane wall to wall Iowa coverage and blogburst (the first contested caucuses of the blog era), we aims to do it again with New Hampshire, the first contested primary of the blog era. My running mate Bruce Moomaw and I would have been on the New Hampshire primary ourselves, but the filing fee is $1,000, and, well, what can I say... the damned trotter put on the brakes half a furlong from the finish...
So-- from now until then-- send in your New Hampshire primary (or even arguably relevant) posts, and we'll put 'em up! If you know of any New Hampshire bloggers, let 'em know about this-- as I did in Iowa, I intend to feature 'em. I also understand that Mary Beth of Wampum will be "on the ground"; so we'll be following her movements around, at least as she feels like posting. And maybe we'll get some Deaniacs and Kerryacs and Clarkiacs in on this one.
Give 'em hell. Send me your tired, your poor, your blog posts... Be here! Aloha!
Comments
Dean still has the biggest group of feet on the street up here and he will not fade away. We are even more pissed than before Iowa and anger is the only thing that will get the nazis out of the Whitehouse.
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