January 27, 2004, Polls are closed now... results trickle in... 8:10 pm
The Estimated Prophet gives us this harrowing account of his efforts at taking a personal exit poll of NH primary voters.
Its a nice piece, so I'll post it verbatim:
My exit polling experience was good and affirming- despite the cold and people just rushing by. I met many dedicated folks from all camps and connected well with some special people. The actual collection of exit poll data by ballot was less successful. My method was to make eye contact, smile and then ask folks if they would like to participate. A large number of folks told me they had already completed CNN and/or Los Angeles Times polls CNN being two pages, while continuing on. A great many people had cell phones clamped to their heads as they headed for their cars.
4 Republican folks spoke with me, 3 Bush, one Clark/McCain write in.
Here is the text of my sign, (posted here yesterday) for clarity:
I am a freelance writer who publishes a weblog on the Internet.
I am conducting an informal exit poll and survey. In this age of media blitz and daily polls, "electability" and "anybody but Bush", the question I am exploring is whether people are voting for the candidate they are most aligned with, or choosing to cast their vote more strategically.
The survey is anonymous and takes less than 30 seconds to complete. Thank you to all who choose to participate. Stop by and see the results.
That final sentence followed by the web address.
The following was on the poll "ballot".
Which candidate is most closely aligned with your values and vision for our country?
Clark
Dean
Edwards
Kerry
Kucinich
Lieberman
And a parallel column asking:
For which candidate did you cast your vote?
Followed again by the alphabetical list.
A disclaimer. The associate that generated the list and produced the 600 copies on card stock left out Reverend Al Sharpton from the list. I did not notice and was informed at mid-day by my associate of the blunder. I waited to get called on it; I admit it does make me look stupid, or worse. I apologize and take full responsibility for the oversight. No exit poll balloter complained. A press guy who was looking at my project did snap one ballot up; I asked why and he said he just wanted to have one. This is before I was made aware of the oversight.
Results
From just before 8 am until 6 pm saw me receive only 92 exit poll ballots.
Where the Candidate most closely aligned with ones vision was the one voted for:
Kerry 27
Dean 22
Edwards 10
Clark 7
Lieberman 6
Kucinich 0
Where the Candidate voted for was a strategic departure from the "closely aligned with your values and visions" candidate we see:
Clark gave no strategic votes away
Dean gives Kerry 3
Dean gives Clark 1
Edwards gives Clark 1
Edwards gives Dean 3
Edwards gives Kerry 2
Kerry gives 1 Lieberman
Kucinich gives Dean 3
Kucinich gives Edwards 2
Lieberman gives Edwards 1
Lieberman gives Kerry 3
One ballot had multiple candidates checked, "Heart with Kucinich" voted Kerry 1
Totals:
Kerry 36
Dean 28
Edwards 13
Clark 9
Lieberman 7
Kucinich
Asides:
Kerry folks wrote the most comments, mentioning his strength on women's issues, his presidential "resume'" , his perceived ability to "Beat Bush", the latter common themes.
Dean was next , "Faith in his vision", and "his vision" being the comments
Anyone but Bush was said to me a great many times.
Well, there you go. I've heard 10% precincits show a big Kerry lead (38% to Dean 24%). If the other 90% go that way, then Kerry WILL have scored big. Stay tuned...
UPDATE: EP vouchsafes the following to your talking dog via e-mail:
"The precinct I chose in Nashua expected at least 1400 votes when I spoke with the city clerk in the late afternoon. I chose it because it comprise an area of rentals, middle class homes and a "ritzy" area of professional. A good cross section of Nashua I was guessing. Now I'll listen to NPR."
Good man. I'm listening to NPR now myself. (Yes, yes, I know).
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