February 4, 2004, The Day After the Big 7 (and then there were... 6)
Well, well, well. While not "Super Tuesday", yesterday fully 10% of the delegates needed to win nomination were up for grabs. A huge day for Senator John Kerry, picking up victories in Delaware, Missouri, Arizona, New Mexico and North Dakota (they sound better when Howard Dean screams them!) Senator John Edwards prevailed handily in South Carolina, and Oklahoma remains a "too close to call" statistical tie with Senator Edwards and General Wesley Clark virtually even at around 30% each.
Senator Joseph Lieberman finally withdrew from the race, having achieved traction exactly nowhere. Al Sharpton won 10% of the vote in South Carolina-- a remarkable showing (IMHO) for a man who should be offensive to African Americans, as well as everyone else. Sadly, as noted yesterday, by finishing ahead of Clark and Dean, he has ended their political careers (though both fools may think they can go on longer).
The conventional wisdom is that its now Kerry running away from Edwards and Clark (Dean, although shooting for a miracle weekend in Washington State and Michigan, ain't gonna get one, barring both Kerry and Edwards mysteriously contracting some dread disease and dropping out of the race). Actually, win or lose in Oklahoma, Clark hasn't really shown much support or traction anywhere else, and if the issue is (as it has to be) either chasing Kerry and forcing him to defend himself against a Democrat the way he will ultimately have to against Karl and the smear machine, or else putting up a candidate who can compete in the South (Edwards) and make Bush have to defend every last inch. Kerry, although just one state away from a knock-out, only came in third in Oklahoma, and IMHO, is showing serious vulnerability about his appeal in the South.
Clark has the money to go on (Dean might, but that doesn't mean he should); but Edwards is, at least, playing it close-- he did well in Iowa, not so well in New Hampshire-- and well again in... the... South. (Did I mention that in my lifetime-- and I ain't so young-- no Democrat from outside a Dixie State has won a presidential election?) Dean is/was one of those "once-in-a-generation" candidates-- like a Goldwater-- that is so fresh, so exciting, that you begin to think that he could do the impossible and win it all. Kerry, OTOH, is a re-hashed tax and spend Northeastern elitist liberal (who really isn't a liberal), albeit one devoid of principle (which should certainly help him in the general election). Yeah, yeah. War hero. We know already.
Look- don't get me wrong. The current 1600 Penn regime (and that's what it is)
is as bad a regime as we have ever had-- as corrupt and venal as the Nixon Administration (and indeed, it sports players from that era). And we will be paying off the debts it has dumped on us for decades. And frankly, I'm beginning to think that any Democrat (and about 90% of Republicans) would almost certainly serve the nation better. So-- yes, Kerry "can win". But maybe not as handily as Edwards can, because Edwards is showing he plays well in the South, and Kerry does not (so far). And maybe that should be the story.
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