February 9, 2004, Kerry Me Home to Old Virginny...
Tomorrow represents the "last stand" primaries for Senator John Edwards and General Wesley Clark if either of them is to have a snowball's chance in hell to stop the Kerry juggernaut from clinching the Democratic nomination quite literally by tomorrow evening. Quite simply, the rap on Kerry's "electability" is that "he can't win in the South". So far, he's either 0 for 1 or 0 for 2, depending on how you cast Oklahoma.
If he goes 0 for 4 (i.e., tomorrow either Edwards or Clark wins both primaries or they at least split), then some decent spinning can make the (excellent) point that Kerry really will not be competitive in Southern states. Since what Kerry now has going for him is (1) inevitability (which fucked up on Howard Dean) and (2) electability (which Howard Dean fucked up himself), an 0-for tomorrow could literally derail him on both counts. Not to worry: I understand Kerry is polling ahead everywhere, fresh off his weekend hat trick of Michigan, Maine and Washington.
Anyway, there is a nice Tennessee summary from new dog run member South Knox Bubba (who lets us know he's a Clark supporter, but that doesn't get in the way of some good analysis). Its no particular post-- check 'em all out as he seems to be running a one-man blogburst (thanks to Granny Rant for letting me know what the Rocky Top Brigadier SK Bubba is up to). As I told Granny, thanks to Glenn Reynolds, Tennessee is a very visible blog world super-power, so my usual trick of finding relatively unknown local bloggers for their perspectives on Tennessee... won't work this time! Also-- this is a 2-state extravaganza: Kerry can win either VA or TN, and pretty much sew up the nomination. (Yes, I am well aware that progressive Wisconsin-- Howard Dean's last stand-- is next week, and Super Tuesday, with minor states like NY and CA on the line-- isn't for three more weeks-- but get real! Roughly 1 1/2% of the American electorate in IA and NH and the newsmedia decided Kerry is "electable", so God damn it, he's the nominee. Got that? To be fair, I think he's won 10 out of 12 contests to date-- pretty solid-- although again, none of his wins are in the South).
Be sure and check out Bubba's take on the President's Meet the Press appearance. (Warning: its a real eye opener. Read it sitting down, with no liquids of any kind near your computer.)
Comments
Virginia --heart-- Kerry.
But I'm biased.
Posted by Diana at February 9, 2004 12:11 PM
To all you annoying bloggers writing W's epitaph.
Let's not forget that President Dukakis was 17 points ahead of George I in the polls. Kerry is now in a dead heat with the deadbeat. We'll see how the Massachusetts team holds up in the late innings. Ask Mr. Boone.
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