March 14, 2004, New World Disorder
In the clash of civilizations, one gets the feeling that civilization is losing. Hence, today's news out of Ashdod, Israel that two Palestinian suicide bombers murdered nine Israelis; while in Moscow (and the rest of Russia), just a few short weeks after terrorists killed scores in an explosion aboard a subway train, voters flocked to the polls to hand President Putin a handy 69% of the vote in his reelection bid; and in Spain, a nation still grieving from its own 3-11 national tragedy, the voters are flocking the polls in a massive turnout in their national election.
Anecdotally, anyway, many voters may chose to vent their anger and grief by voting against Prime Minister Aznar's Popular Party (that's its name), though Aznar will probably manage to hold on to power anyway, despite the belief of many of his countrymen that his (foolish) decision to back President George W. Bush's War of Family Revenge only made Spain a target for al Qaeda. (Just between us girls, while that may be true to a degree, I tend to think that Spain was chosen as a target mainly because there is a sieve like border across the Straits of Gibraltar between it and Morocco, a nation we already know al Qaeda was operating in.)
While some may draw the (wrong) conclusion that the Europeans will now (somehow) get "tough on terrorism" now that it has happened to them, I turn to the invariably correct Matthew Yglesias, who, in this short but sweet post, tells it like it is:
Most Europeans were plenty serious about terrorism before this happened. So was the Democratic Party. It was George W. Bush who, along with José Maria Aznar, Tony Blair, and Silvio Berlusconi who decided that terrorism was such a serious problem that it should be pretty much ignored except insofar as it was a useful rhetorical prop for the selling of an unrelated war.
Guess what: Iraq was a diversion in the actual battle against Al Qaeda; but then, since a head-on battle against Al Qaeda might mean taking some harsh measures (short of deploying bombers and air-craft carriers-- plllleeease, people, we needn't invade a country to solve every problem) against American Presidential pension provider Saudi Arabia. And we might have to twist some arms in "ally" Pakistan. Not to worry, I s'ppose: now that OBL himself is in the same kind of strategic box that Saddam Hussein was once in, and is, in effect, neutralized, he can safely be captured (the OBL watch is 37 days hence-- note the step up in military operations in Afghanistan, and inside of Pakistan-- right on track for the big announcement on Hitler's birthday-- April 20-- though Ayn Clouter has predicted Mary Poppins' birthday (the day before). I think we'll both be right-- depending on time zone.
Once again-- in the year 2004, the world seems an infinitely more frightening place than it did in the year 2000-- at every level, I might add. Ah, the march of civilization when it is led by kleptocrats.
Would all this be the case if Al Gore were President? In the Poor Man style, the simple answer is: "No. It wouldn't.
Comments
Aznar was voluntarily stepping down from power. It was his party that was running for reelection. I'll bite my tongue on the rest because, as you said, "everyone is entitled to an opinion, even if I don't agree with it."
Obviously, Spain's strong economic growth wasn't enough to keep the Socialists from winning. Give an assist to the Islamists.
Posted by Lawrence at March 14, 2004 05:36 PM
Actually, I credit the whole point-- entirely unassisted-- to the Islamists, and exit polls agree with that assessment; the economy in Spain and just about everything else did not seem to be the decisive issue.
Yes, you are correct that Aznar himself had groomed a successor PM, but certainly, his Popular Party-- but for the 3-11 events-- would have won, and won handily.
Its unclear to me what happens if Al Qaeda perceives that it can now sway elections on a massive scale; it seemed to kill people for its own fanatical reasons, which were usually beyond our fathoming (which has the misfortune of being based on reason).
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