The potentially explosive situation in Kiev, Ukraine following the hotly disputed presidential election rolls along. According to this piece (representing this week’s visit to Pravda), time is not on the side of the opposition, whose candidate Victor Yuschenko managed to get Ukraine’s supreme court to hold up certifying the election results.
Pravda’s take is that we have an especially interesting situation in Ukraine, where the Kremlin has sided with the sitting government of outgoing current president Leonid Kuchma along with the government’s candidate, Victor Yanukovich, and the European Union has clearly sided with challenger Yuschenko. Naturally, Yanukovich is looking to strengthen ties with Moscow, and Yuschenko, with the EU. Pravda’s tone is decidedly pro-Moscow in this case, noting that a number of Eastern European leaders who have arrived in Kiev to mediate (including Polish President Alexander “the Kwaz” Kwazniewski) are doing so at the behest and behalf of the EU. Of course the Kwaz is marching to the tune of Brussels, here. No reason why a Polish president (btw, former Polish President Lech Walesa is also in Kiev to try to mediate) might have an interest in Ukraine (which, IIRC, borders… Poland…).
The Pravda piece also asserts that the mood of the street crowds may determine the outcome here, aned given the onset of winter, darkness, et al., they may not be able to keep up this fight all that much longer, ultimately favoring Yanukovich.
We’ll see how this works out. Russian President Putin’s advice, on its face, of letting Ukrainian institutions work out Ukrainian affairs without interference from Brussels or Washington (or Moscow?) is sound, and indeed, unassailable. At the moment, Ukraine’s supreme court has the matter in hand (first hearings scheduled for Monday). Ukraine’s parliament is in emergency session, and there may be a consensus for a new elections. My understanding as I write this (around 15:00 GMT) is that the election results have been decertified and new elections are in the offing. Naturally, portions of Eastern Ukraine (more Russian speaking) are threatening to break off (recall Czechoslovakia broke into the Czech Republic and Slovakia; unclear what Ukraine would break into… “U” and “Kraine”? Developing…)
I disagree with Pravda on the power of the street protest movements: in Eastern Europe, at least, these movements tend to be fomenters of change, and frankly, I think are accelerating events there by changing the political dynamic. Ukrainian institutions may well conclude that Yanukovich is the rightful winner, but if so, will not do so in a half-assed and brazenly partisan way (see Bush v. Gore), but will have to do so openly, and for damned good reason.
At least, that’s what I’m hoping. So far, at least, the situation has not degenerated into violence. Let’s hope at least that record continues, and this is resolved peacefully, if not to the satisfaction of all sides.
tdog
I nominate “Eu,” not “U.”
I agree that street protests seem to have more impact in that part of the world than they seem to have in the “West.” Remember all those anti-war protests pre-Iraq that had such little impact?
Perhaps, Dog, we can divide this country into the U (Blue states) and the S of A (Red states).
There is no “z” in the name of Polish president Aleksander Kwaśniewski, though the name does seem related to kwaśny (sour, acidic).
I’m surprised the language issue hasn’t gotten more play in the western press since the country is linguistically divided between Ukrainian-speaking, Ukrainian-leaning (bilingual with Russian but no objections to strengthening Ukrainian’s position) and the south and east which are strongly against the Ukrainian language, the electoral map shows the split very well.
Poland has done what little it can to further the cause of the Ukrainian language though historically the two groups don’t like each other (Belarussian as well) in hopes that a stronger linguistic division would reinforce a stronger political division between Russia and it’s two little brothers.
I work closely with two guys who are recent emigres from Ukraine (I almost typed ‘the Ukraine’). According to them, and to other sources, Russian- and Ukrainian-Ukrainians are united in an effort to get rid of the current gang of thieves simply because they are a gang of thieves.
Russia, of course, would like any opportunity to re-extend its orbit. Ukraine, once it settles down, has a lot of potential to be a powerful European state.
To me, what’s going on right now reminds me strongly of the mood in Poland in the 80’s. I don’t think that the popular uprising will give up easily. These are hardy people.
I just hope that there’s no blood shed.
Hmm. Would that the Americans were equally interested in getting rid of a gang of thieves, but apparently not.