August 26, 2003, You Never Give Me Your Money
Well, with nothing major blowing up in the last few hours (that I'm aware of), its time to avert our eyes from the shaky existential state of the world and look at the shaky state of... the American public fisc. We won't talk about state and local governments. It would be too depressing.
We'll just note that the Congressional Budget Office puts this fiscal year's deficit at (a record) $480 billion. Technically, that's not a record in terms of percentage of the total economy (at least I don't think it is), but note that the deficit does not include the $4 billion a month (disclosed) cost of the war in Iraq, nor the cost of Medicaid/Medicare prescription drug reform.
Let me be the first to say that I think a President Al Gore would have been saddled with deficits, had he taken office: the business cycle was headed for a trough, and as economic activity falls, so does federal revenue. Unemployment at 3%, technically over what many economists believed to be "full employment" seemed unlikely to go on, as did never ending stock price increases, and other boom attributes. The issue, obviously, is the magnitude of deficits, and what overall economic effect they would have. Since a healthy part of the deficits (we're never exactly sure how much) represents quite literally a reverse transfer payment to very affluent people who, under prior law, had an expectation to pay more tax, I would guess that so-called "dynamic scoring", which would allow some of the revenue losses to be countered by revenue gains from stimulated economic activity, is absolutely unfair here and should not be used. The entire lost revenues should be counted as a dead loss to the public fisc.
Obviously, it would be interesting if federal government spending were being reduced in the face of all this budgetary pressure, but it isn't. Under the President's party, both discretionary and non-discretionary spending continue to rise (though not, of course, on ideologically inappropriate social programs, where politically feasible to cap or reduce spending).
There might be a theory that the idea is to (eventually) reduce the size of government by depriving it of its revenues. But if the GOP won't reduce the size of government when it controls all branches now, why should we assume it will in the future when, we suppose, we will have "divided government" again? I tend to think there is little method to the madness; the President (and his friends in Congress) are delighted to throw bones to the people they deal with all day, i.e., the rich and the powerful, at quite literally the expense of the rest of us. The government still spends money, and it still imposes taxes, a larger and larger percentage of which will be borne by wage earners (and the self-employed), as heirs of large estates and dividend recipients get bigger and bigger tax breaks.
Further, today's deficits will have to be serviced by tomorrow's interest payments, i.e., more taxes later or at least reduced services. Further, deficits tend to increase long term interest rates, reflected in everything from mortgages to credit cards, and at some point, federal borrowing tends to crowd out private borrowing, further reducing future economic activity. It would be one thing to risk these adverse consequences if there were something good there for everyone (i.e., universal health insurance, which might actually improve overall economic activity despite its costs by lifting this burden from employers, and making us more competitive with other countries, i.e., every other industrialized nation, that has this). But to do this so that already rich people get a tax holiday?
If you ask me, this level of being out of touch is infinitely more troubling than Papa Bush's failure to recognize supermarket scanners.
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