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On the same day that American diplomatic missions in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia were closed amidst a warning of imminent terror attacks, suicide bombings at a foreign (mostly Arab) workers cmpound in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia has killed at least 5, and wounded more than 80.
I heard a Saudi official on the radio last week (yes, it was National Palestine Radio) asking "Why would these people blow themselves up just to avoid simple arrest?" Actually, in the Saudi reality, being arrested (especially on a terrorism charge) might result in torture, followed by beheading. Blowing yourself up makes sense in that context! In fact, lots of things we find nuts begin to make perfect sense. A lesson, of course, also lost (until, perhaps, quite recently) on the Israelis, one of the few if not only country's where torture was legal; brutality has strange consequences.
Which I'm trying to put in context. The Saudi regime is quite nasty-- a brutal theocracy with few rivals (if any) for the level of its brutality, coupled with supreme corruption among the seemingly never-ending legions of its vast royal family. There is a theory out there that the Saudi government (or at least elements thereof) propped up Al Qaeda and encouraged it to pursue American (or at least non-Saudi) targets, to "buy time" for the regime itself. If this theory is correct, given the spate of attacks within the kingdom of late, the Saudis may have paid for all the time they are going to get, and the attacks inside it will now step up (albeit now aimed at "foreigners" within Saudi Arabia, Saudis are certainly being kililed as well).
Don't know. This IS one area where I can comfortably say that whatever current American policy toward Saudi Arabia is, its probably wrong. The Saudis have been coddled for far too long; yes, they are the world's stabilizer of oil markets. But that is just why we cannot go on forever allowing the regime to continue measures that will serve to destabilize itself, or worse, export its destabilization (which I suspect its also doing in Iraq).
Given the extra-political and diplomatic ties between the Saudi ruling family and the American ruling family, its difficult to judge how much policy is being made for objectively American interests, and how much is being made for less savory reasons. But, short answer: the Saudis have to clean up their act, cooperate in the War on Terror (including permitting American investigators access to Saudi terror suspects), reduce their internal corruption, and modernize their institutions and laws (which are, frankly, mired in medieval times). If the Saudi regime doesn't take these steps on its own, these changes will be imposed upon it. Violently. And probably not in a way that makes we in the United States very happy.
Comments
Actually, in the Saudi reality, being arrested (especially on a terrorism charge) might result in torture
Sadly this is pretty much true of the region at large (including ostensibly democratic states) and the rest of the continent as well. Saudi Arabia is hardly unique on this score alone.
There is a theory out there that the Saudi government (or at least elements thereof) propped up Al Qaeda and encouraged it to pursue American (or at least non-Saudi) targets, to "buy time" for the regime itself.
Given the disorganised nature of the Saud kleptocracy and internal palace politics this is a possibility; on the other hand other elements would be just as eager to prevent such an outcome and any jeopardising of the extremely lucrative (for them) status quo.
export its destabilisation (which I suspect its also doing in Iraq).
Which it also has done elsewhere, most notably to Pakistan and certain European countries. Although to be fair some of this was motivated by a desire to prove themselves as the real guardians of Islamic tradition in contrast to the much more credible Iranian theocratic post-1979 regime; which understandably made the Saud clan look like, well, whiskey fuelled hedonists masquerading behind the banner of religious revivalism (which to be honest they were).
If the Saudi regime doesn't take these steps on its own, these changes will be imposed upon it. Violently.
I dunno, who is going to do this? The US has its hands full and even if it does get around to doing anything reducing internal corruption and institutional and legal modernisation is hardly going to be high on their agenda – the examples of Iraq and Afghanistan indicate that US aims are much more limited and rather than embark on a costly and effort-intensive programme of mass social change; they will settle for a regime change that is in accordance with their short-term interests. As for internal dissidents, the most powerful and influential of these tend to be Islamists of varying hues; many of which can said to be more popular and exert more credibility than the present rulers but whose aims of an ideal state are not going to be particularly democratic nor liberal – with the sole exception that their Puritanism will I assume reduce corruption. On the other hand look at Iran now and how the corruption of the political class there has become a standing joke behind the Islamist revolutionary fervour and rhetoric so this might be optimistic as well.
All in all, quite a depressing situation all around.
Posted by Conrad Barwa at November 10, 2003 02:34 AM
Conrad--
Depressing indeed. More depressing, in fact, than even I intended. But as to "who" would bring about Saudi regime change-- we agree. It would be Islamist extremists; General Wesley Clark has observed that Osama bin Laden might well win a Saudi popular election. Well, someone like him might not need to stand for election...
The Saudi regime is a time bomb. Crown Prince Abdullah is, at least, relatively honest amidst an otherwise seamless cesspool of corruption there. But he's getting up there in years, and I suspect, won't hold on too much longer (and was never in complete control anyway). Worse, its oil infrastructure is incredibly vulnerable-- just a few key junction points represent the majority of the oil flow from the world's largest reserves-- all guarded by a state that by many accounts is failing.
Man, now I'm even MORE depressed...
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