the talking dog

November 21, 2003, Sea of Holes

While even I admit that the blasts in Istanbul that killed at least 27 (including British Consul Roger Short) and injured over 400, are far less important than the Michael Jackson story, the Turks nonetheless insist on remaining interested in it, and have arrested a number of suspects in connection with the blast. What are they thinking?

Since 9-11-01, unless you're willing to count the subsequent anthrax mailings and Flight 587 as terrorist attacks (and few are openly willing to do so), the United States "homeland" has not been the subject of terrorist attacks since that day. Not so American interests, of course, especially in Iraq, but other attacks have taken place in Pakistan and Afghanistan against specifically American interests, and certainly, there have been coordinated Al Qaeda type attacks on Western (especially Jewish) interests in Kenya, Morocco and now Turkey, as well as attacks within Saudi Arabia, and an attack in Indonesia intended for Americans that killed a lot of Australians. (For this calculation, we can consider straight Israel-Palestine related violence something entirely separate.)

While we content ourselves here in "the homeland" that our "tough guy" President has been somehow averting further attacks on us here at home (despite a lack of evidence on that point, to be fair, one way or the other), it seems pretty damned clear that there is a major league shootin' war out there, which certainly looks to be a real live terrorist war to me. Lots of juicy targets in the Islamic world, especially the more "liberal" or at least secular parts of it, like Morocco, Turkey and Indonesia (or of course, Iraq).

I cannot even guess as to the likelihood that this violence will spill over into another attack on American soil in North America, and indeed, it is unclear that it even has to, to achieve the goals of this particular group of well-financed-by-Saudi-oil-money terrorists. Their goals (rank speculation time!) are to try to undermine the more Western leaning Islamic nations, in the hope of having such nations adopt harder line Islamist policies (see "Taliban"), and driving a wedge between such nations and the West (especially the United States). That, and of course, these bastards just enjoy killing innocent people.

Amazingly, the initial response after 9-11-- the American response to terrorists is not to be in any sense construed as a war against Islam-- has been wonderfully undermined by the Iraq adventure, where we took it upon ourselves to change the regime of a secular, albeit nasty, Islamic country-- and interestingly, a country with no apparent responsibility whatsoever for the September 11th attacks (compare and contrast "Saudi Arabia"). In terms of the "big picture", I can't think of too much more that would make your average Islamist terrorist happier.

Note to self: cancel grand tour of Islamic world.


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These terrorists attacks are creeping along in a mean way, probably right at us.

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Posted by Mark Konrad at November 23, 2003 04:12 AM

You know, there really is a Crusade going on here. The christian crusades impoverished European nations of money and men, and made possible both the Protestant revolution and the rise of the middle class. Perhaps, given a couple three centuries the Islamist crusade will do the same. Maybe the Turkey bombings (that always makes me think of WKRP In Cincinnati) are part of the Inquisition. Is there anything new under the sun?

Posted by irisclara at November 23, 2003 08:33 PM

You know, there really is a Crusade going on here. The christian crusades impoverished European nations of money and men, and made possible both the Protestant revolution and the rise of the middle class. Perhaps, given a couple three centuries the Islamist crusade will do the same. Maybe the Turkey bombings (that always makes me think of WKRP In Cincinnati) are part of the Inquisition.

Posted by irisclara at November 23, 2003 08:35 PM

sorry. stupid double post. my mp3 player was playing The Beatles - Dizzy Miss Lizzy (see 11/20 post) while I was typing that.

Posted by irisclara at November 23, 2003 08:37 PM

Clearly, based on location and type of attacks, it suggests that all the madrassas-trained guys that had fanned back out prior to 9/11 are doing more cell-like attacks, possibly with little central guidance, using old-school methods (car bombs, truck bombs, suicide bombers).

Yes, it terrorizes, but looking at the big picture, these do not carry the gravitas or longterm planning of a 9-11 spectacle. And relative to the Cold War, how can it compare to the Soviet threat of those grand old days? We sure are spending dollars and men as if this were the greater threat.

With such an expansive system of multiheaded cells, it seems that conventional warfare cannot combat it. It will take a combination of far more skillful intelligence and a far shrewder psychological warfare to take down these bad boys.

For starters, the mainstream Muslim world has to turn on them, which can only occur if Muslims start dying in these terrorist attacks, and.... oh.

Nevermind.

It does make me wonder... it would be easy to slip in a few attacks that look similar to a terrorist attack, blaming all on AQ. So maybe ... just maybe, the psych war has begun. A terrified Muslim world might feel compelled to ally with us more if they feel as threatened.

I'm not saying all attacks may be staged, but perhaps a few are. Such a psy-op approach would be justified if it creates a greater intelligence network of terrified citizens throughout the Middle East.

Could that be what's happening? Beats me, but it's an interesting speculation.

Posted by Cowboy Kahlil at November 24, 2003 06:12 PM

Strategically, since Al-Quaeda has gotten what it wanted out of 911, America sitting in an Islamic country killing Moslems, why waste the resources (in people esp, 19 suicide attackers able to maintain cover and security in the US and able to fly airplanes are probably pretty rare compared to your average human bomb).

I would also guess that Osama prefer that our present regime remain in office, given their Ready, Fire, Aim! orientation, but I'll be damned if I can figure out if he will or will not try something big in the US prior to the next election.

Cowboy, I wouldn't put it past Bush, but I think Osama is using bombs to destabilize and overthrow our allies, and our getting caught would be truly bad, so hopefully there are enough responsible adult professionals still left in Washington to prevent this.

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