January 2, 2004, (Over) Time Is On My Side
The Department of Labor, according to this Washington Post piece, is planning to issue its controversial regulations of which workers are eligible for overtime pay sometime in March. Last year, over 11,000,000 workers received some amount of overtime pay.
Under the 1938 law, for most hourly workers, time and a half pay is due for work in excess of 40 hours per week. Overtime pay is also mandated by many union contracts. Salaried employees (such as most professionals, such as... myself) are rarely eligible for overtime pay, but some "para-professionals" (such as paralegals) usually are eligible for overtime pay.
My understanding of the proposed "clarifications" includes changing income caps on eligibility (such as a blanket ban on workers earning over $65,000 per year) and redefining "responsible" workers. Some in Congress estimate that up to 8,000,000 of 11,000,000 eligible workers may be screwed by the changes (although others point out that perhaps a million or so more workers might be newly eligible).
Standard GOP pressure tactics have come into play to try to get a law authorizing these revisions passed. From the Post article:
[Rep. David] Obey [D-Wis.] said he was forced to weigh the belief that the rule would "stiff workers on overtime" against his district's needs. "Members are being told if you stand up for what you see as the public interest, then the penalty is that your constituents will be screwed," Obey said.
Rep. Ralph Regula (R-Ohio), who chairs the committee [the House subcommittee on labor, health and human services, and education], said in a letter to Obey in late October that he would not provide funds for projects in the districts of members of either party who voted against the bill, which he defended as "fair and balanced."
This particular change is also being heavily touted by the White House and Congressional Republicans, and is widely regarded as very favorable for business interests, and very unfavorable for many workers, whose incomes will decrease for doing exactly the same (or more) work.
Well, obviously, my liberal brothers and sisters will immediately jump on this as another example of the heartless Bush Administration putting business interests ahead of the interests of workers. But, I'm going to try to make three broader arguments against the proposal, based on (1) jobs, (2) economic growth and (3) the deficit. Democratic candidates are free to make an issue of this, though I suggest they go with my efficiency-based arguments rather than pure demogoguery.
(1) Jobs
It doesn't take a Nobel Prize in economics to ascertain that if a business as 1000 hours of work per week to perform, and 25 employees, it can have them each work 40 hours and get the work done. But if it has only 20 employees, it would have to pay for 200 hours of overtime at the time and a half rate. The business might conclude that its better off hiring another 5 people rather than paying its existing people time and a half. Removing that incentive to hire new workers will put upward pressure on unemployment in a "jobless recovery"-- exactly contrary to what a President who wants to "create jobs" should be doing, as the business can simply order its existing workers to work more, without overtime pay. Obviously, there would also be downward pressure on wages overall, because of higher unemployment, which leads us to:
(2) Economic Growth
It is well documented that the only reason the economy has not been sent into meltdown during the recent (and ongoing) recession is because consumer spending has been strong, largely by heavy consumer borrowing. Unemployment, though higher than in recent times, has still been low by historical standards nonetheless, so consumer confidence, though shaky, hasn't been that shaky. A significant income reduction to workers who are already at the economic edge (and servicing high debt loads) could potentially be disastrous; bankruptcies are already at record levels-- this measure could increase them dramatically. Further, defaults will not be good for the banking industry-- or much else. And consumer spending will have to decrease accordingly. In short, income will be reduced to the one sector that has kept the economy going. And there will also be an effect on
(3) Tax Revenue
Workers receiving overtime tend to be pushed into higher income tax brackets, and as salaried employees, tend to have fewer options for tax dodges available in the Internal Revenue Code, so overtime pay tends to lead to higher tax revenues to the federal, state and local governments. By shifting the benefit from overtime work from the workers to business, business profits should, by definition, improve (if not improve significantly). While this should lead to economic expansion, it will probably not (see point (1) re: job growth). Further, as I said-- our economic engine right now has not been business spending, but consumer spending. Finally, businesses are very adept at tax avoidance-- giving business more income while giving workers less income will unquestionably lead to a reduction in tax revenues, at a time when the federal and state governments are in various states of fiscal crisis.
On balance, if the effect of the regulatory change will, in fact, be to reduce overtime pay for a significant number of workers, it is a really bad idea.
Going into an election year, one wonders what the hell the Bush Administration is thinking. Then again, if the Democratic candidates do not seize on this issue--perhaps, making it a centerpiece issue, one wonders what the hell they are thinking.
Comments
Hey, TD
Any estimates as to who will be most effected? Do you know the real sponsors and lobbyists behind the travesty?
I'm guessing that on the whole, low-paid retail employees, such as the employees of Wal-mart, will be most affected. No real employee benefits, and now no overtime.
What a country!
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You fists sentance in point 3 is completely unfounded and incorrect. working overtime only throws you into a higher tax bracket for that additional money. All the money you earned before is still taxed at the lower bracket.
If you need more information on this just look it up yourself:
http://www.payday-loans-online.us/tax-rates.shtml
or
http://taxmama.com/AskTaxMama/219/ot.html
As such with or without the overtime the govt. takes their share of the wages, the overtime does not change the tax rate of the previous hours worked.
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