the talking dog

Your talking dog is delighted with the response so far to the request for blog burst in anticipation of Monday's "All Iowa All the Time" deliberate overkill coverage of the (all important?) Iowa caucuses, which have become so interesting, I can't tell you! Amazingly, Howard Dean looks touchable, Gephardt is in a dead heat, and Edwards is showing some life (good for him! while the Unseen Editor was an early Dean man-- to his credit, I always liked sincere-seeming, homey, poor boy good old trial lawyer Edwards... but that's to be expected!) and if you can believe it, the heretofore moribund John Kerry has come out of absolutely nowhere!

For general background on matters of Iowa, we give you the incomparable Hawaii-based blogger "Linkmeister Steve" and this take on matters Iowa. Up to date coverage on matters in Iowa from nearby Oahu!

I'm also delighted to introduce two gen-u-ine Iowa bloggers, with their inimitable "ear to the ground perspectives".

First, Dave Hogberg's Cornfield Commentary gives us Dave's take on why Howard Dean is slipping and slipping badly in Iowa. Here are his observations (which seem right on the money, though given how fast and furious this race has heated up, if you don't like the weather... wait five minutes!):

"I suspect that this reflects what is going on with the polls. At first, the Dean hype—his internet fundraising, his sudden leap to the frontrunner due to his opposition to the war—attracted a lot of upper-middle class Democrats. The hype translated into support among people in Iowa who were likely caucus-goers. But now that a lot of Iowa caucus-goers, especially the union folks, are getting to meet Dean, his support is dropping. The problem is Dean has made the mistake of equating “uneducated” with “stupid.” While most don’t have college degrees, union members can be quite cagey and skeptical. I suspect they aren’t overly sold on a Northeasterner giving them a sermon.

Back in December I bet that Gephardt would likely win. Had you asked even a few days ago who was going to win in Iowa, I would have said Dean. Today, it’s anybody’s guess. I’ll make a prediction on Monday, but not one with much confidence. "

Dave has astutely pointed out that what many (such as me) feel is Howard Dean's Achilles heal in the general election-- his Northeastern elitism-- may be coming to bite him in the ass now-- in the caucuses and primaries; if so, this whole race for the Democratic nomination just got blown wide open.

Also from Iowa, we have Tung Yin (a native Californian who advises he will be attending the Democratic caucuses himself!) who gives us two points from The Yin Blog, the first being this take on why the Democrats SHOULD let the fur fly-- just to keep it interesting... the second piece being his own observations on the upcoming caucuses , including his own unscientific poll showing, as always in on-line surveys, disproportionate support for Kucinich (my theory being that junior high schoolers really like Kucinich--possibly because of his diminutive stature-- and skew the polls).

Both Tung Yin and Dave Hogberg promise to be outstanding sources with respect to the caucuses, and I am delighted to welcome them to the fray!

As noted above, the sudden collapse of Dean (and softening of Gephardt) and the sudden emergence of Edwards and Kerry (both of whom have the personal history, and life experience, if not political experience in the case of Edwards, to clobber Bush), makes this fascinating. Of course, in two or three weeks, this may all be an asterisk as yet someone else emerges (such as Bill and Hill's candidate, Wesley Clark), or not inconceivably, Hillary Clinton herself. I don't know. But right now, this is heady stuff... Be here... aloha!

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the talking dog

January 16, 2004, Iowa Heating Up... Last Work Day before Monday

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