January 16, 2004, Iowa Update-- The Dark Horse Surges Ahead
The Unseen Editor is kind enough to forward the latest Zogby poll for the Iowa Democratic caucuses: Massachusetts Senator John Kerry has (to my humble widdle bwain) done the impossible and opened up a five point lead (with 24%) over now second-place former Vermont Governor Howard Dean (with 19%). Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt is right there tied for second (also with 19%), though Zogby notes that there is a consensus that he has an excellent Iowa organization that may very well bring him home some votes, if not a caucus victory. Still in the thick of it is North Carolina Senator John Edwards (with 17%; Edwards got the endorsement of the Des Moines Register, I believe), making what one would have thought would be a sort of beauty contest between otherwise going nowhere Dick Gephardt and prohibitive overall favorite Howard Dean has been turned on its head, and is now a four-man down to the wire horse race.
Man, this is fucking great! This is good for America, this good for democracy, hell-- this is even good for the heretofore moribund Democratic Party. Note that professional circus clowns Al Sharpton and Congressman Dennis Kucinich are at .1% and 3% respectively, but the loathsome cabal of Terry McAuliffe and the Clintons insist on legitimizing them by having them in the (endless) debates. The Clintons' personal candidate, General Wesley Clark (and yes, I hold that against him, especially as he is a candidate I once believed had tremendous promise) is at 3%, Joe Lieberman, who along with Clark (I understand) really aren't expending much effort in Iowa, is at 1%, with Undecided trailing the lead quartet at 13%.
More interesting, Zogby notes that Kerry seems to be leading in every category-- old people, affluent people, young people... I'm just stunned. I do get Kerry's campaign e-mails that have really been optimistic, but I gotta tell you, I just saw Kerry imploding (and called for him to get out of the race many times). If Kerry prevails in Iowa, given that the next state is his backyard of New Hampshire, we could be seeing a complete and utter turnaround: despite his huge war chest and awesome package of endorsements, it might just be Howard Dean on the ropes two weeks from now. (Regardless, will Joe Lieberman just please drop out already?)
Stay tuned. Its only Friday-- we're still over 72 hours away from the caucuses starting, and at the rate things are happening-- that is an eternity.
Comments
Yeah, the clark and lieberman numbers are irrelevant because they announced long ago that they were "skipping" Iowa. So it's really even more interesting, because the CW is that Clark is the real 2nd palce competition for Dean, and he isn't even in the four way calculation.
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