January 16, 2004, Blogger Iowa Predictions
Well, I think its just too early to do this, but Polipundit has gone out on a limb anyway, and selected Howard Dean as his putative choice to win the Iowa caucuses. The rationale (IMHO) seems to be more wishful thinking than based on the opinions of... actual Iowans (see my earlier post today on that), but I see Poli's point: in his view, a typical Democratic voter, Kerry, Gephardt and Edwards all voted to support the war, so fuck them; the only important Democratic issues are the war and the tax cuts, and Dean is the man on both.
Its a sentiment I kind of agreed with at one time, until I realized that most Americans, including Democrats, in their self-absorption, have long put Iraq behind them, and are now thinking about the NFL Conference finals, and the weather, and returning their Christmas presents. In short, Iraq is not that relevant. And that kind of means Howard Dean is not that relevant. ALL of the Democratic candidates have criticized the tax cuts-- Dean gets no extra points for that. For these reasons, and the fact that a lot of people don't seem to like him, Dean appears to be in deep trouble now.
Its a bold prediction (especially now) and I admire the Polipundit for going out on that limb. As I have said, 72 hours is an eternity... Kaus, btw, thinks that Zogby's polls are... less than completely predictive (and that maybe Kerry has peaked TOO EARLY!) Dean's mysterious uncounted 40,000 strong "organization" might pull this out for him; or maybe, Zogby knows what he's doing. Until Monday night, we gots ou'selves a horserace!!!
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