the talking dog

January 19, 2004, The Late Line from the Professional Handicappers-- 5:30 pm EST

The CNN Crossfire guys have the following predictions:

Paul Begala - John Kerry in 1st, Howard Dean in 2nd

James Carville - John Kerry in 1st, John Edwards in 2nd

Bob Novak - Turnout will be key, so John Kerry in 1st, Howard Dean in 2nd

Tucker Carlson - Howard Dean in 1st, John Kerry in 2nd

(Also, Bob Novak gives us his take of why Dean is collapsing here; hint: he came across as arrogant and diffident, in his handling of a heckler, in his handling of "the war", and in general; on this theory-- look for momentum to be king... and Kerry to be crowned.)

Well, that's a consensus!!! Thanks to the Unseen Editor for this item (and for many throughout the day). He also sends us this cornucopia of Caucus related goodies on ABC's The Note (scroll down a bit for an excellent analytical discussion between "the momentum" theory-- favoring Edwards and Kerry, and the "organization" theory, or the battle of the"M's" vs. the "O's". What amazes me about all this is the staggeringly large amount of money (Dean spent around $3,000,000 on t.v. ads) for the staggeringly small turnout (120,000-- a record-- is only around 4% of Iowa's population, less than 1/20 of 1% of the American population, and indeed, barely 20% of Iowa's Democrats!) And yet, if the Crossfire guys are right, ostensibly, Gephardt's campaign is over , and the damage to Dean's campaign would be lethal, unless he could turn around with a huge win in New Hampshire.

Ain't democracy wonderful?


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