January 30, 2004, The Plot Thickens
Well, a subdued Democratic candidate debate last night, an interesting week chosen by the Bush Administration to more or less come clean that we ain't ever gonna find WMDs in Iraq (though still refusing to admit that the President and handlers knew this at the time, which I remain absolutely convinced of, albeit with no factual support on my part for this conclusion), and the Howard Dean campaign... reassessing, as Joe Trippi leaves, the campaign is running short of money, and Dean needs a win or two somewhere (and Edwards needs to win in South Carolina), or Sen. John F. Kerry (Ultraliberal- Taxachusetts) will be the Democratic nominee, and I would go further and say, will have a good chance of being the next President of the United States. As to "electability", one should consider why any state that did NOT vote for George W. Bush in 2000 would vote for him now. You got me!
(BTW, for two riotous takedowns of a ridiculous personal flurry of attacks on Kerry by conservative pit bull Ann Coulter, we recommend this from Letter from Gotham and this from Seeing the Forest. Go ahead Annie- portray Kerry as an obnoxious rich guy-- maybe he WILL win by landslide! If there's anything America likes even more than a plain old rich guy, its a rich guy who got there by marrying money or by inheriting money. good move Ann-- keep it up.)
But I digress. The Democratic nominee, IMHO, just has to pick up one or two states-- NH, WV, or maybe FL-- and the Blue Math trumps. Add another Dixie State via a well-chosen veep candidate (sorry-- not Edwards, much as he is my favorite horse, albeit a few lengths back now), it gets even better for the Democratic nominee. Right now, smart odds would be 80-90% Kerry for the nomination; he needs a major gaffe to undo him-- and he is nothing if not careful.
Well, I don't know where to predict that Howard Dean should try for his win this week... ARIZONA! NEW MEXICO! OKLAHOMA!!? But I DO know where Edwards needs his win-- and that's South Carolina, so next week's Tuesday "blog burst" and saturation overkill coverage will be... South Carolina! So... South Carolina bloggers with good stuff... send it on over, and we'll post it. Bloggers watching South Carolina from anywhere else... the same (thetalkingdog@thetalkingdog.com)
From the blogger who gave you the first and only blogburst (I know of) for both the nation's first contested caucuses and first contested primaries, we could be giving you the "last stand" primary blogburst next week. To be honest, if John Kerry wins in South Carolina, Senator Edwards' presidential hopes this year are gone, as are Wesley Clark's, as would be Howard Dean's. If Howard Dean doesn't win at least one state, preferably two, his campaign is over as well. Wesley Clark can go on a bit because of the Bill/Hill fundraising machine, but he probably has to win South Carolina to have any real hope of securing the nomination. So-- since I've decided that the Palmetto State is the ballgame-- let's hear it for South Carolina!
Be here. Aloha, y'all.
Comments
I think Clark is wisely not even really contesting SC, leaving it to Edwards and Kerry to duke it out. I believe the general is focusing all of his attention on Oklahoma.
Posted by Norman Schwarzkopf at January 30, 2004 07:34 PM
You think the President went ahead with saying that there were WMDs in Iraq, knowing that not to be true, and that it would become obvious after the invasion?
That doesn't sound like a very wise move. I thought you'd give Karl Rove a little more credit than that. If he were a liar and as dishonest as his critics contend, and knowing there were no WMDs to be found, he would have had them planted in Iraq after the invasion. Isn't that more like the Bush you know?
Posted by Lawrence Haws at January 30, 2004 09:09 PM
Lawrence--
Between me and you, I would kind of prefer my scenario to yours. I would much rather believe we are being led by an Administration consisting of people as duplicitous and evil as I think they are, rather than as stupid and incompetent as your suggestion would lead one to think they are.
But you may well be right; as I said, I have absolutely no evidence of my assertion-- and to be honest, I have even heard from "insiders" who were absolutely gung ho certain that Saddam really had the WMDs.
Clearly, Saddam Hussein did not have WMDs, and clearly, there seemed to be more than enough indications that our "intelligence", especially from the "exiles" and from Israeli intelligence plants, was extremely unreliable, and it should have led to many more serious questions being asked before it was accepted. Instead the parts of the intelligence that supported the desired policy were accepted, all else was discarded, and away we go.
In some ways, I'm rather glad the Administration (save Cheney) is just out and out saying "we were wrong" (without quite saying it in THOSE words of course). But WMD "production facilities" or other Orwellian phrases will come back to bite them on the ass: best to just say "we relied on intelligence that later proved to be faulty; under a similar threat, however, we would probably have to act in a similar manner again, albeit with improvements to our intelligence".
I won't hold my breath, of course.
Posted by the talking dog at January 30, 2004 09:22 PM
Edwards will win SC. He'll also probably finish 2nd in MO, and may do well in OK and NM. If some non-Kerry gets the nod, it'll be Edwards.
Dean is toast.
Clark isn't toast, but he is slightly warm bread at this point. I just don't see him winning. He basically ONLY has the electability thing going for him. We don't know anything else about the guy.
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