February 7, 2004, Was it Over When the Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor?
Today, of course, there are two huge caucuses-- those of Michigan and Washington State. Right now, CNN shows Kerry with a healthy lead (over 2 to 1) over Dean as of 5:00 pm EST; the Unseen Editor tells me Dean showed some strength in some early anecdotal reports out of precincts.
As I saw noted by digby, we all seem to forget that in 1992, Bill Clinton lost Iowa (to Harkin) and New Hampshire (to Tsongas) winning only 3 of the first 14 contested primaries or caucuses. Of course, this year is a much more compressed schedule. Because of the compressed schedule (you know, forget just firing Terry McAuliffe; will someone kidnap him and subject to continuous torture between now and mid-November; at that point, he can be deported to... Iraq), the early bouts seem to have magical disproportionate power; but, the fact is, the huge mass of delegates will be selected on early March's Super Tuesday when some minor states like New York and California have their primaries.
I'm taking nothing away from Kerry: today's New York Times had a front page story on Kerry's come from behind victory over challenger Bill Weld in the 1996 Massachusetts senate election. He's a tough customer, and a tough campaigner. God, I wish I liked him. I so want to like him. Whereas I just can't help but like Howard Dean more and more (who evidently hasn't ruled out the vice-presidency, though one wonders what a Masschusetts senator could gain from running with a Vermont governor; of course, if someone else, say John Edwards takes the top spot... well, a dog can dream, I s'ppose).
Well, an excellent point is made by Michael Kinsley here, i.e., that Democrats are desperate for a winner and trying to guess what and who Republicans will vote for end up being, shall we say, pathetic. There are plenty of things to like about Kerry, even if I think there are more things not to like. Not so Dean, or Edwards, who I think envision what Democrats are supposed to stand for. It would be poetic justice (no-- strike that-- it would just suck) if Democrats once again outsmart ourselves by, instead of asking what it is we want our President to be and going out and making damned sure our man gets the job, we are... second-guessing... our own... preferences. Significant numbers of the (ridiculously disporporanate in importance) Iowa and New Hampshire voters said they preferred Dean and his message, but thought Kerry was more likely to beat Bush.
Well, I don't know: the economy still sucks, and doesn't look like it will improve fast enough to save Dubya's ass (think 1992). Seems to me a fiscal conservative pro gun rights rural governor won't be so "unelectable" now. But what do I know? I especially like the po' boy done good trial lawyer. How electable could he be? Hey look: the whores, like Brooks also in the Times, now attack Kerry based on who his contributors were. Imagine that: the Acting President of the United States draws a multi-million dollar annual salary from a defense contractor he funnels business and war profits to while purportedly serving the nation from his undisclosed location (in Jackson Hole, WY, for those who don't know), and yet... this is the attack on Kerry. Maybe he's not so bad after all...
Its a damned good thing he's so electable.
Update (7:15 pm EST): Kerry wins the Washington caucuses, with 48% support to Dean's 30%; Kucinich comes in third with around 8%. Kerry has the early lead in Michigan with over 54% support. Well, Edwards is betting on Tennessee and Virginia; Dean is betting on Wisconsin. The reality is that far more delegates are up for grabs coming in March; but the media has picked its winner-- and that may be more important. We will see; the Kerry juggernaut rolls on; Maine tomorrow; Virginia and Tennessee on Tuesday to come.
Comments
I agree. I want to beat Bush as bad as the next guy and I think almost any of the Dems would be a better President than Bush. Nonetheless, in choosing a nominee, the most important issue is whether or not a candidate would make a good President. That is far more important than being electable because a person who who make a good president will bring the other qualities with him or her. Please note that one aspect of being a good president is having sufficient political skills to do the job.
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