February 10, 2004, Kerry's Now Whistlin' Dixie
Senator John Kerry has won both the Virginia and Tennessee primaries.
I have no idea why the other real candidates-- Clark, Dean and Edwards, in alphabetical order-- will not promptly announce their withdrawal from the race. Kerry has now won 12 out of 14 contests, including in the Northeast, the Northwest, the Midwest, the Southwest, and now, finally, the South. Terry McAuliffe's blitzkrieg format, designed ostensibly to see to it that the overwhelming majority of Democrats don't have an opportunity to actually assess or test their candidate before the early primaries and caucuses pick a winner, has inured to Kerry's benefit. He looks presidential, and he's a war hero.
Sorry, boys and girls: those were Wes Clark's qualifications to the office, and he at least hails from a Southern state and will not be saddled with a liberal voting record. Clark fucked up by not being in Iowa... big time. Not that IMHO, those are good enough criteria: Howard Dean alone among the candidates was a chief executive of a government; John Edwards has that "log cabin" life experience I like to see. But we got John Kerry. O.K. That's how Hillary (Terry) wanted it, so that's how it is. Congratulations to Senator Kerry: he played this to perfection, and if he runs his general election campaign this well, he will be the next President of the United States. Since he is not a member of the Bush-Cheney team, he will, by definition, be an improvement.
Nonetheless, we gotta problem coming up in three weeks: its called the New York primary. Other than "while on life support". I don't see how any of the real candidates can limp along for the next three weeks. Howard Dean, win or lose in Wisconsin (and he will lose-- sorry Howard), is witnessing the death throes of his campaign. Edwards may be playing for veep now, though he may not be the greatest choice for Kerry (think Bayh or Breaux, someone designed to switch a red state to blue). And Clark? His people already went without pay this week... I don't see a bleepload of money coming in, having failed to win in either VA or TN.
OK-- so New York (and Super Tuesday) will be a Kerry coronation. What's the big deal? Hillary's poison pill-- that's what. A low turnout affair, as the New York foregone conclusion primary looks like, will benefit New York's least favorite son-- the guy who Terry and Hillary insisted on giving legitimacy to by inviting to the national debates (along with the amusing, though not viable Dennis Kucinich). Obviously, I'm talking about "the Reverand" Al Sharpton, who stands an excellent chance of theoretically winning the New York primary, or more likely, scoring 30 or 40% of the vote, establishing himself as a national force, and delegitimating the party as a whole by making a scofflaw a major power broker, not to mention, making the presumptive nominee look like an ass.
In short, I just hope this "peaking too early" thing does not afflict Senator Kerry. Much as I don't like him, as the Democratic nominee he will have nonetheless earned my support in the upcoming general election; I daresay we're not likely to find him cavorting on the back of a cabin cruiser with some floozy now, are we?
Comments
I think you're basically right that Kerry's got it in the bag but . . .
. . . now that Clark is out . . . if Dean also drops out, will their delegates go to Edwards? If so, can Edwards still mount a challenge to Kerry at the convention? (asking honestly, not posing an obnoxious rhetorical question)
Posted by Tung Yin at February 11, 2004 01:00 AM
Would a Bayh or Breaux switch a red state blue? If so, I am for them but I am not sure that La. or Indiana is the best red state to try to switch. Is there anyone who could bring Florida (Graham?) or Missouri (Gephardt?) or Ohio along? Or even Arkansas (Clark?)?
I think that it might be better to ignore the geography and instead seek to reinforce strengths. That suggests someone like Clark.
Nonetheless, I would pay money to see John Edwards' response when he is attacked as a trial lawyer who promotes the litigation lottery.
He will do something like point out a parent of a child killed by corporate negligence and then ask if that parent feels like they won the lottery when they visit their child's grave.
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