February 19, 2004, Train Wreck Analysis
The Dean campaign, as I have said before, is one of those things that doesn't come along very often, presenting the voters with a legitimately fresh alternative to everything they have seen from politics for a long, long time. In fact, the main analogs I see for it are on the Republican side (Goldwater, Reagan, to some extent, McCain; comparable Democrats like Udall and Babbitt never achieved frontrunner status). For the polar opposite of that, think "Washington business as usual", or in this cycle, "John Kerry". That said, despite a meteoric early success, the Dean experiement failed badly in its field tests. What the &^%$ happened there?
Vice-President Moomaw (well, we'll pretend; Bruce and I still have no delegates, and at this point, I'm not sure we'll be admitted to the convention!) sends me this piece by Tim Noah in Slate. Its a "Dr. Dean, Mr. Hyde" kind of thing. The sensible fiscal conservative governor with the conscience to oppose the Iraq adventure who could have destroyed Bush in every state except Texas and Wyoming decided to fight off assholes like Dick Gephardt (forget every nice thing I ever said about that fuckhead, please...) who challenged Dean on Medicare and Social Security, two programs Dean rightly said would have to cut spending in order to remain viable. In adjusting his own political persona to pander to "the base", Dean ran away from his own record.
Is it a surprise that voters ran away from him too? Think about it...
Ongoing problem for Democrats: is what it takes to win the nomination exactly what it will take to guarantee a loss in the general election? I hope not, but the more I think about it, the party would be well served to be rid of guys like Gephardt (who, in the end, was and is just a panderer extraordinaire).
The Unseen Editor chimes in, noting that Tim Noah just isn't a very good writer, and a lot of what Dean got nailed for wasn't "pandering" at all so much as candid, honest statements of conscience (certainly, the war opposition wasn't pandering; pandering on that is what all the other candidates did).
Alas, voters, especially Democrats, don't want honesty: they want Santa Claus.
The fault, dear Voters, lies not in our political stars, but in our selves. If a truly good man fell from the sky before us and asked for our political support... the voters of Iowa would treat him like a leper and vote for John Kerry instead.
Comments
As has been pointed out, the press didn't attack him for what he was, did or said, but for being the front-runner. They also slapped Clark when he looked like the next one. Kerry will be raked over the coals mercilessly for everything. For example, he'll probably get more sh*t for his war record than Bush did for his draft-dodging, AWOL, coke-snorting National Guard deal.
In a few months, you will be *real* sympathetic to Kerry. Also, Chomsky's theories about the mainstream media will probably seem less crackpot.
Posted by Barry at February 19, 2004 02:46 PM
I love Howard Dean. But guys like him simply do not get elected (see: McCain, John). Maybe it's that people would rather be fed sunny lies than dour truth.
I honestly don't believe it was "the media" that did in the Governor. I think he did himself in with his own candor. People don't want to consider that maybe George Bush could have stopped 9/11; no one wants to be told that cheap prices in the stores mean fewer jobs in our factories; and most would rather not have to think about gay marriage at all.
Those that expect the media to now gang up on John Kerry are wrong. He'll have up days and down days, to be sure. But candor and honesty will never be problems for John Kerry.
There's a reason honesty is so rare in politics: it's because it's a losing strategy.
Posted by Judith Steinberg at February 19, 2004 03:21 PM
I think Dean did a great service by getting the Democratic candidates' heads out of their asses and encouraging real criticism of the administration. Inasmuch as Judith is participating, I won't catalogue Howard Dean's failings, but I never thought for one minute that he was ever going to be the nominee. I don't think it's because people don't want to hear the truth; I think they want to hear it stated less stridently--the candidate must be able to win elections, and that means having a reasonable and likeable public personality.
The fact is, a bunch of good candidates did fall out of the sky. I think we should take seriously the plaint of some of the Iowa and N.H. voters who said they just couldn't choose because the candidates all were quite good in different ways. This suggests to me that if we take the long view, there's a surprising degree of health in the party.
Short view, Kerry has been successful because he was able to put over the message to the electorate. I worked my butt off for Clark, and I thought it was a crying shame to watch Kerry pick up all of Clark's very good themes and use them so effectively as his own. The good man who fell from the sky, as far as I'm concerned, was Clark--a truly sincere guy, but one with enough ambition to be able to get out there and suck up to the electorate. The fact is, however, that Kerry did a better job of convincing people with those messages. As a wise street kid once observed in a Times Square video game parlor, "The game is played for points, man, not style." Kerry really does seem able to rack up the points, and that is the principal qualification in a political candidate.
Any of the Democrats, including the egregious Gephardt, would have been better than Shrub, so I'm just going to put away any bitterness and regrets about what might have been, and work as hard as necessary to remove the current occupants of the White House.
Posted by Mary Anne Mayo at February 19, 2004 05:42 PM
If a truly good man fell from the sky before us and asked for our political support... the voters of Iowa would treat him like a leper and vote for John Kerry instead.
HEY!! I have to defend the honor of my (new) home state. . . . First, we whacked Gephardt and sent him packing. Second, quite a few of us ended up voting for Sen. Edwards, propelling him to an unexpected strong second place finish.
Posted by Tung Yin at February 19, 2004 05:45 PM
"Kerry has been successful because he was able to put over the message to the electorate."
What the hell does that mean? What message? Did I mention I fought in Vietnam? I'LL FIGHT FOR YOU? Did I mention I fought in Vietnam? BRING IT ON? Did I mention I fought in Vietnam? DON'T LET THE DOOR HIT YOU ON THE WAY OUT? Did I mention I fought in Vietnam?
As for Clark, why was he even running? What was the purpose, other than being the not-Dean? There's no better proof than the fact that once Dean fizzled, Clark, too, ran out of gas. He was a man who believed his own press clippings, and who too many fatuous Democrats were willing to put in the race not knowing anything about his beliefs beyond the fact that they'd be bracketed at either end by four stars. If he's so interested in politics, I hope he now runs for Senator or Governor and gets some experience. But something tells me his interest is all self, and if he can't be the most powerful man in the world, he'd rather take his marbles and go make lots of money giving speeches. I guess we'll see.
People were scared of Dean because he spoke uncomfortable truths. Saying you can't have universal health care without raising taxes may not play in Dubuque, but it's the truth. Trust me that you'll never hear John Kerry admit anything of the sort. I guess that's why he's a "winner".
Kerry, the man who voted for NAFTA but now loathes free trade; Kerry, the man who voted for the Iraq War but now says it was a mistake (how could HE know Bush was going to start a war so fast?); Kerry, the man who voted AGAINST the Defense of Marriage Act (courageous, or smart, in Massachusetts?) but now seems to be considering a Constitutional Amendement banning gay marriage; and Kerry, the man who voted for the Patriot Act but now seems astonished that the man prosecuting it -- who was in office at the time of his "yea" vote -- is John Ashcroft.
Indeed, even so, Kerry is probably better than Bush. I just want to know why Democrats are satisfied with such a meager improvement.
Posted by Adlai Stevenson IV at February 19, 2004 07:08 PM
TY--
The voters of Iowa can feel duly vindicated by the fact that 14 out of 16 states have gone along with them!!!
Mary Anne--
I agree-- several candidates in this cycle are, or were, new, fresh, exciting, would get apathetic voters off their tushes and into the voting booths and would probably make damned good Presidents, and not all are named Howard Dean. Amazingly, the frontrunner is as "Washington insider" as it gets-- but he seems to have made the sale. Clark was, as much as anything else, a victim of modern presidential logistics: by getting into the race so late, he put himself in the position of having to even consider by-passing Iowa, a decision which proved disastrous (IMHO, had he been there, he would have split the "we want a war hero" vote and probably caused a more or less 3-way Kerry-Clark-Edwards tie).
Adlai--
You've been reading THIS BLOG, haven't you? I can't tell you how annoyed I am that the Democrats have selected the BY FAR least appealing candidate of the four who had a chance (Gephardt and Lieberman, of course, are neither appealing nor did they have a chance of winning). Makes me want to cry. (Well, at least Edwards has A SHOT. I think Dr. Dean would be very happy for Senator Edwards if he somehow pulled this out.)
Barry, Judy-- the media has exactly as much power as the electorate gives them-- which is too damned much. But it saddens me that Howard Dean's candor made him "crazy" to both the media and millions of people (including many people I regularly converse with). In fact, it makes me sick.
Posted by the talking dog at February 19, 2004 09:00 PM
Dean got nailed for saying the world wasn't safer without Saddam and letting off that weird scream at a rally. Plus, there's something slightly creepy about his mouth and the shape of his head. The people were perceptive enough to see this.
Posted by The Raving Atheist at February 19, 2004 10:33 PM
sure, kerry is a lot less creepy looking! well, no matter. i really, really wanted to hear dean debate george w and feel like we've been robbed!
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