February 18, 2004, Reality Bites (II)
Via a CNN breaking news e-mail, we learn that Howard Dean has come to a decsion: he will suspend his campaign, though his name will remain on the ballot. This is a good move going in to Super Tuesday, where Dean was not likely to do well. It gives the media their two-man race. The question is what they do to John Edwards: portray him as the fresh-faced golden-boy? Or slime him, the way Dean has been severely slimed and Kerry mildly slimed to date?
We'll know in but a fortnight's time...
Comments
Why aren't you urging Dean to support Edwards and take Kerry down? Isn't March 2nd really and truly the pivotal day? Either Edwards wins a few (by which I mean three or more) primaries, or he's basically proven that beyond cherry-picking, he can't win.
Would not a Dean endorsement of Edwards go a long way towards evening things with Kerry?
Or do you think Dean is so disgusted that he can't bring himself to endorse anyone right now?
Posted by Speed Racer at February 18, 2004 10:39 AM
Speed:
Dean is big on stepping on Edwards; the story in Iowa could have been Edwards' surprising finish-- but it became "I have a scream". Once again, an Edwards surprising finish will be overshadowed by Dean's "suspension" formal announcement. Hence, its unclear to me exactly how much Dean wants to help Edwards; sure, he may hate Kerry-- but does that mean he's still not pissed for himself, rather than wanting... to help... Edwards.
Also, as we learned from Al Gore, endorsements, even from other candidates, are not exactly decisive (in a good way, anyway). To be honest, what matters now will be (1) whether there is more widespread "buyers' regret" towards Kerry, and (2) whether in the 2-man race, the media starts crapping on Edwards, as well as Kerry. Also- Kerry has a money and "frontrunner" advantage going into some huge media markets.
But Super Tuesday, IIRC, will include such minor states as NY, CA, GA, and OH will be in play; IIRC, more delegates by far than have been determined in the first 17 contests will be up for grabs that one day.
In collegiate rowing terms, this represents a "repechage", or a second chance heat. Yes, Edwards did not do all that well in the first heats (1 for 17!): BUT, a strong showing in this heat can well put him into the finals.
As we know, 13 days is several eternities!
Posted by the talking dog at February 18, 2004 11:06 AM
Dean's people are true believers who drank the Kool-Aid -- unlike the supporters of any of the other endorsees. Their problem wasn't fervor, it was that they lacked critical mass.
If Dean says to go and support Edwards, many of the Deaniacs will.
But will he?
Posted by Speed Racer at February 18, 2004 12:06 PM
If your boy, Dean, would have fallen on the sword a few weeks ago, we could have a real race & election. Instead, we're stuck with this "What did you do in the war Daddy?" minuet, that is completely irrelevent, and will only lead to a scandal ridden second term, followed by "The Bitch is Back" in '08.
No, not an Elton John tour.
Posted by Dick Dastardly at February 18, 2004 12:54 PM
Speed, I'm your brother. I wasn't always there to look out for you, but now I'm back. Please stop making a fool of yourself. Leave that to Chim Chim.
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