the talking dog

In a move that follows one of the obsessions of blogger Granny of Granny Rant, we have this report showing that Swiss Re, the world's second largest reinsurer, estimates that casualties (in the insurance sense, rather than the military one) associated with natural disasters caused by global warming will double in cost within ten years. (link via Drudge).

This comes, of course, after the Bush Administration reveals its heretofore secret plan to build over 90 coal-fired electricity generators to increase electricity production by around 20%, so that the Kenny Boy Lays of the world have (literally) more power to trade for money, even while everyone else in the world must choke on the increased particulate and other chemical crap being spewede in the air, oh-- and in the name of Kenny making a few extra bucks (which he will doubtless share with his friends) -- may usher in a new ice age (link via Granny).

What the fuck? Apparently, there is substantial new scientific evidence that ice ages do not take thousands of years as once thought, but that, in fact, when "global tipping points" are reached, might occur within two to three years (and similarly, ice ages may recede in aproximately that time). This is startling shit, and means we could well see an ice age during our own lifetimes.

Let me repeat that time frame: two to three years. That means the Kyoto long range targets are horseshit: if we are anywhere near the tipping point (say, a large Greenland glacier melts enough to cool the gulf-stream that warms the Northeastern United States and most of Western Europe), we are talking global disaster-- NOW.

The Bush Administration's plans to dump yet more airborne coal crap into the atmosphere (after, of course, doing everything in its power to allow more and more shit to be dumped into the atmosphere as it is) would be laughable, were it not for this unbelievably nightmarish scenario-- which, God knows, has infinitely more scientific validity than the theoretical chance Saddam Hussein had nukular weapons (sorry-- WMD related production activities?). Gee-- the first warning of this disaster might not be a mushroom cloud, but a fucking ice age. Where is preemption on this war?

Houston-- and London and New York and Washington and the... rest... of... the... fucking... planet-- we have a problem. And the Bush Administration's policies (and those of prior American governments, to be fair, have not been all that much better on these issues for the most part-- though the Bushistas have been really bad about them) of accepting the words of paid lobbyists over those of governmental scientists continues to stagger. Maybe this is alarmist-- but maybe it should be assessed damned seriously damned fast, and a non-industry whore scientific consensus determined, before our theoretical global warming problems become extremely real.

The good news is that Swiss Re has stepped forward and finally said something the Bush Administration might respect: global disaster is bad business for insurers who contribute to his campaign. It may be cynical, but if that's what it takes to save life as we know it, it's good enough for me.

TrackBack (1)

Comments

The Blue States are under water? What's the problem?

Seriously, I waver between thinking these guys are just anti-science reactionaries and thinking they know what's happening and don't give a shit (or are planning to make a profit off it).

Posted by space at March 4, 2004 10:33 AM

Your two suppositions are certainly not mutually exclusive, Space. Ideology and science mix about as well as, forgive me, oil and water. And greed/selfishness is always about "I want more now, screw you and screw the consequences!"

As for the under the deep (blue) sea future of certain states, consider the southeast Atlantic coast, the Gulf of Mexico states--to include that state to which Dubya will soon retire--and especially FL (Jeb won't be happy).

Posted by Bragan at March 4, 2004 01:00 PM

"Houston-- and London and New York and Washington and..." Florida, under-water.

Florida, under-water. Out here in the High Cascades, that's not a problem. Too bad about Seattle, Portland, and maybe Eugene. And California.

The other professor in the family, my mom - out there in the flood jone, maybe... buffalo - has a cute post on her office door (I'd have it if I HAD an office door): Poor planning on your part does not necessarily constitute a crisis on mine. If folks won't listen, when the zealots write it off as junk science, "so what, I won't be alive" or "Hey-seus will have carried the faithful away"... maybe it's time to stop telling them about it. Perhaps prepare ourselves and our families to survive such. If they are to ignor the prognosis, ignor 'em.

Posted by Thomas Ware at March 4, 2004 02:40 PM

My favorite conservative dodge is "The climate fluctuates naturally, so the changes we see are not the result of global warming".

They assume that the natural fluctuation causes the changes we see. But maybe the natural fluctuation has been masking the human-caused changes, and when the natural cycle reverses itself, we'll see much more intense changes.

There's no way to know either way. Almost all the anti-global warming spokesmen have a primary interest in economiucs one way or another, and study climatology, if at all, just enough to be able to spread a little confusion.

Posted by Zizka at March 4, 2004 03:48 PM

Were you guys not paying attention? The polar icecaps melting causes flooding. An ice age absorbs the ocean. Coastal cities would be like the Russian Aral Sea towns.

Posted by D McGinty at March 4, 2004 04:07 PM

"Coastal cities would be like the Russian Aral Sea towns."

But wait, it gets better! Areas above a certain lattitude, like London and New York and Seattle and Chicago, wouldn't be landlocked so much as they'd be encased in ice.

How much would -you- be willing to pay for this incredible offer?

Posted by the Fourth Man at March 4, 2004 05:19 PM

Historic track record not good on this. Henry Flagler completed his railroad to Key West in 1914. In the early '20s Europe experienced a series of colder-than-normal winters. Blame? Flagler's railroad bridges were blocking warm water from entering the Gulf Stream. Then temps returned to normal and it was forgotten.

I grew up on a farm in Florida and am old enough to remember when serious scientific opinion pointed to the dangers of global cooling. Witness the disastrous freezes in the winter of 76/77.

In the Bahamas where I teach Scouts to sail, there is ample evidence of changing sea levels. You can see where the last post-glacial melt topped out. You can sound the now underwater cliffs that were exposed at the arid height of the last ice age. Remarkably, the flora and fauna responsible for the Bahamian plateaus have stuck around for millions of years, building platforms of calcite thousands of feet thick.

And your point is? Nature is remarkably resilient. Should we mess around with it? No more than necessary for human happiness. Should we obsess about it? Only if you enjoy that sort of thing.

Posted by Capt. Bob at March 4, 2004 07:42 PM

The global warming phenomenon may be trumped by the peak oil phenomenon. If we are running out of oil we may not be able to sustain the CO2 overload and hence the warming. Unfortunately we wouldn't be able to sustain society either. Of course, if the ice age event occurs just as we are running out of oil...oops.

Posted by pamur at March 4, 2004 09:44 PM

I've been looking online for awhile now trying to find a global map that shows estimated changes in coastline due to potential rising ocean levels- no luck yet- Thought I saw something years ago depicting this, maybe not- any leads?

Posted by jackthejack at March 4, 2004 11:08 PM

The work on sudden onset of glaciations was done in the early 70s, before anybody much noticed global warming. When they did, simple minded commentators tended to heave a sigh of relief and think, "well at least we don't have to worry about that one any more".

That was before they started making the connection that major ocean currents like the Atlantic conveyor were dynamic systems which could move to another state very quickly. So, yes, global warming could well cause an ice age.

Why do I get the feeling that the politicians who pay any attention to this sort of stuff could be counted on the fingers of one foot? (That is a wholly non-partisan sentiment.)

Posted by chris at March 5, 2004 05:34 AM

GREAT book discussing this subject:

The Two-Mile Time Machine : Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and Our Future
by Richard B. Alley (Author)
http://snipurl.com/4wz4

I've seen Alley give his "abrupt climate change" presentation and it is chilling (no pun intended...)

Posted by gpclay at March 5, 2004 05:03 PM

Global warming. Peak oil. Two problems. One solution.

Nuclear Power. No emissions, no oil. Modern systems are very safe(both from accident and attack), and can be designed to produce very little waste. Nuclear waste might kill a few people in 100,000 years, if it leaks. People die every day, now, because of particulate pollution. Mostly, Uranium turns into lead. Keep it out of the water supply, and we're ok.

Europe uses a ton of nuclear power - you never hear about them having problems with it because it is safe, and cheap, and clean. The Russians screwed up - their design at Chernobyl was highly unsafe, the accident there could not happen here.

Solar is expensive, dirty and unreliable(clouds). Wind is unreliable and potentially harmful to wildlife. Nothing else is ready or even close to it, and nothing can be used to cover the incredible needs we have for electricity like nuclear.

Posted by rvman at March 5, 2004 05:41 PM

OK... this is the right forum for this... Remember when Al Gore kicked ass? Well, quite topically, he's kicking ass again in his speech on climate change. If anyone wants some good data on climate change and to see the exact opposite of the cardboard cut out formerly known as "AlGore2K:"

http://www.moveon.org/gore3/webcast.html

Posted by Forrest Jackson at March 6, 2004 01:08 AM

Duh ... what happened in France last summer? How many Gramps and Grannys (Oh no, Mr. Bill) died during that heat wave ... I am not going to venture a guess because it is higher each time I hear it.

"Nature is remarkably resilient. Should we mess around with it?"

The problem is we are messing around with the weather, climate or Earth's Ecos ... and whether they are doing it for weapons development, weather manipulation or to protect mankind with a shield from UV radiaition and the ozone hole ... I am pretty sure we do not know WTF we are doing.

I agree ... politicians are so thoroughly wrapped in their agendas and the cutesy games they play with special interests, they are simply not going to listen. And Bush takes it a step further by manipulating, distorting and burying scientific evidence unless it says, "We need more Co2 in the air. I think 90+ coal plants would help us enviornmentally," Bush shoves it down a deep hole. Then he denounces and ruins the career's of any scientist with the nerve to actually tell the public the truth.

There was a terrific piece on TruthOut a while back by Waxman and linked to a huge .pdf showing where the Bush administration had altered, surpressed and buried scientific reports for political gain.

We simply must get rid of that fool ... and then what ... another fool, of course.

I do not think things are bad enough yet to 2 X 4 the American people to attention yet ... but it is coming. So I agree, lets concentrate of what we can do to survive and help our kids and grandkids.

Matter of fact, I am afraid this little truth seeking machine called the internet will be next to go. It has to be on their last nerve. As soon as they figure out the OFU's can determine the difference between disinformation and information, it will be gone. Many sites are gone already.

Gran

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