Two fascinating pieces from the news that one would usually associated with the downfall of the sitting Imperium, at least in the American democratic model: (1) stinging condemnation of a sitting Emperor's reelection campaign by one of his own state chairmen; and (2) surprisingly weak job growth numbers (an anemic 32,000 new jobs in July).
I listened attentively to a program on National Palestine Radio (NPR) last night where an econometric statistician (from the same college as both candidates!) insisted that general economic trend numbers favor a rather decisive Bush victory this round. He quickly added that his methods, which correctly picked 19 of the last 22 presidential elections (though he is more proud by the accuracy of his predictions of margins of victory) may not work if there are non-economic factors at work that would trump them, such as... a "war on terror", or a war in Iraq that may be perceived as not going well, or the fact that so many people just plain old hate George W. Bush with a passion. Indeed, his model diverges sharply from polling, which he admitted may reflect this.
So... we have things like this Fox poll
(you know its fair and balanced) that gives Kerry a slight (wihtin margin of error lead), but then if you look down the chart at specific questions, you see, for example, that the "negative impressions" of Bush and Cheney are much higher than the numbers for Kerry and Edwards, and on key questions of the economy and national security, Bush is just not doing that well. My understanding is that there is a heavy element of voters who say their mind is solidly made up.
Well, there was a time when Democrats were praying for bad economic news. Well, perhaps God is a Democrat (LOL): we have a Dow under 10,000, oil over $40/bbl, interest rates forced to go up (albeit slowly), and jobs going... nowhere (while its politically useful to say that jobs are leaving the country, the reality is such "outsourced jobs" probably represent under 10% of recent job loss; we are just losing jobs to economic slowdown). Oh-- Iraq doesn't seem to be going all that well, and it has become painfully obvious that the President is playing games with terror scares for politics.
So I'll go out on a limb here: if this election were actually about what the voters want, Bush will probably lose (as he probably did in 2000, if the question was asked that way.) But as New York political legend Boss Tweed said, "Its not about who votes. Its about who counts the votes."
If I have to read that Boss Tweed quote one more time, I'm going to get Boss Hogg to run your Daisy Dukes up the flagpole.
It's great to see Kerry mocking Bush's reaction to September 11. That worked so well for Andy Cuomo, when he snorted that Pataki just held Giuliani's coat. Worked so well, it singlehandedly ended Cuomo's career. Who's the Democrats media consultant, James Watt?
Posted by They Call Me Mr. Crabcake at August 6, 2004 11:25 AM
Wrong again, Crabby: that one piece-- the Chimp reverting into a classroom to read a story about a goat-- is by far the most important part of that wonderful propaganda piece called "Fahrenheit 911".
Let's face it: the Chimp is a... what's that word? LYING COWARD (that's two words... sorry). He is running his whole campaign on this tough cowboy thing-- WHICH. IS. A. LIE.
Bush crapped in his pants on 9-11. And 9-11 is the only thing he's running on.
Enough people get that message-- and Bush is finished. And given that Bush seems hell-bent on attacking Kerry's "thing"-- 'Nam-- Kerry HAS TO-- no choice in the matter-- attack Bush's only thing. AND NEVER LET UP ON IT. EVER. (Including after John Kerry is sworn in as our 44th President.)
Andy Cuomo famously had all his father's negatives and none of the positives; Andy wasn't going anywhere anyway (and I kind of liked the line-- although Rudy got far more people killed than "he saved" on 9-11; think internecine battles between NYPD and FDNY, not to mention "radios). So you just leave the Cuomos out of this.
I think I laid out the case for Kerry pretty well: Economy tanking? CHECK.
Soldiers still regularly dying in Iraq? CHECK. War on terror openly exploited for political gain, and caught doing it? CHECK. You get the idea.
(I was most amused that in Davenport, Iowa, where the two sluggers were campaigning a few hundreds yards from each other, and every cop in Iowa must have been providing security, there were THREE BANK ROBBERIES WHILE THEY WERE CAMPAIGNING! Just restores my faith in AMerican ingenuity, somehow.)
Posted by the talking dog at August 6, 2004 12:03 PM
The word is actually hypocrite - because not only is the Torturer in Chief a drunken cokeheaded coward who deserted in wartime, he wants us to treat Kerry as if he was the deserter, and the Chimperor as if he won three Purple Hearts!
I'd tell pRezNit Prozec to go pound sand up his ass, put he might scratch his eyes out if he does that...
Posted by (: Tom :) at August 6, 2004 01:08 PM
Thank heaven for rational discourse.
TD, I'm delighted to see you're so cheerful and optimistic. However, it ain't over til it's over. The most discouraging thing I've seen since the primaries began is an article on Slate today describing Bush's current campaign tour. Describes his revival preacher style, call-and-response routines, quick-witted jokes, and comedy routine wrap-up, and observes that the huge crowds he's drawing come away loving him and grooving on what a "regular guy" he is. No substance, mind you, but major entertainment value. Makes me wanna puke just thinking about it.
Doesn't somebody, somewhere have a picture of him from his cheerleader days at Andover? There's a regular guy for ya. Give me an "A," . . . .
Posted by mamayo at August 6, 2004 03:41 PM
TD...You're right...the economy is NOT "turning the corner". Those of us in manufacturing hell are still dealing with huge steel price increases that we are unable to absorb or pass on. It has made business quite challenging.
Mr. C...between crabcake jihad and The Dukes of Hazzard, I suspect seafood gumbo will grace your table very soon. Enjoy!
Posted by alicia at August 6, 2004 03:43 PM
Mamayo, I completely agree...calling Will Farrell for another Bush impression in the fashion of his hilarious cheerleading skits on SNL! Think of the possibilities...
Posted by alicia at August 6, 2004 03:47 PM
Mamayo, here you go. Photos of our Imperial Leader in his white cheer sweater.
Posted by Linkmeister at August 6, 2004 03:57 PM
Thanks, Linky. Perfect. Could show how Bush I played football for Mother Andover and Bushie II, being a "regular guy," just made the cheerleading squad. Then, later on in life, Bush I got some Segway transporters for fun in Kennebunkport but Bushie II, being a "reglar guy," fell off when he tried to ride. Bush I served in WW II as a combat pilot and led the way for Bushie II, a "regular guy," to wear a flight suit for the Mission Accomplished photo shoot. Yep, just a "regular guy." Scared of that "devil horse." Chokin' on a pretzel when he falls off the couch.
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This is Kerry's game to lose, now. You are seeing desperate moves by the bushmen to soak up the "undecideds"... but we are just about out of them. And such as there are end to be women, and women just hate Bush-- at the same visceral level on which he is basing his whole campaign. (Women IMHO intrinsically sense the Momma's Boy aspect to the man-- yes, Clinton had it too, but in the "good way"-- about makin' Mama proud-- as opposed to Bush's bad way-- of showin' up Dad with that caveman bullshit).
The wild cards remaining that could do in Kerry: a dismal debate performance, or a major terorist incident, or if the conspiracy theorists turn out to be right about the electronic voting machines (and other GOP cheating plans). Not enough time for anything else.
I tend to think that cheating has traditionally cancelled each other out (both parties do it). But this year may be different.
A terrorist event is (WE HOPE) a complete and total wild card. And the debates are within Kerry's control. We're not happy he won't commit on the simple question: If YOU KNEW there were no WMDs, do we do Iraq? Since yours truly DID KNOW there were no WMDs in Iraq (at least the Bush Admin. thought so, or it coudln't have had the luxury of timing the invasion for the election cycle), there was only one answer: ARE YOU F***ING CRAZY? Of COURSE we don't go in!
But Kerry is... waffling. Not good. He's fortunate no one is decided.
Posted by the talking dog at August 7, 2004 08:24 PM
I'm pretty sure Bush 1 was a baseball star, not football.
Oedipus, call your office.
Posted by julia at August 8, 2004 02:12 PM
OK, baseball; but not cheerleading.
Women hate him because he's a smirking, swaggering bully-boy whose idea of humor is the putdown. Women hate him because he's the brain-dead frat boy incompetent who got the job/got into Yale/got into B-school over somebody better-qualified (who was probably a woman). Women hate him because he was a drunk, which usually ends up being bad news for a woman. Women hate him because he protesteth too loud regarding his regular guyness.
I don't think women really give a shit what the psychological basis is for these unpleasant personality characteristics; they just wish he'd freakin' get out of the way so somebody competent could do the damn job. And take his obnoxious smirk with him.
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