What in God’s name is going in Iran? Keep your eyes on the prize, and, as is almost always the case where political legardemain appears to be going on in front of us, consult Al Giordano’s The Field, who tells us not to be so concerned about whether or not there was “electoral fraud” in Iran [hint: what matters is whether Iranians writ large feel the whole, rigged game of their system is entirely illegitimate, and what they will do about it… which right now, appears to be massive protests amidst government crackdowns, lockdowns and arrests] and Al also tells us why the world is on the edge of its seat [hint: it’s not the results themselves, which were probably a foregone conclusion, but again, what the Iranians will do about those results, which as noted above, looks pretty explosive.]
In short– discard the conventional wisdom. Iranians know bloody well it matters little if at all which figurehead is allowed the title of “president”… the mullahs and ayatollahs control the game in a largely repressive, theocratic society, with interersting overlaid elements of apparent freedom and democracy peering through from a generally not very pretty overall picture. But the Iranian people, satellite dishes, cel-phones, internet connections and all, have aspirations of their own, and the mullahs will have to give in on some on them from time totime (such as permitting an actual win by the man the people actually voted for), and screwing them on this symbolic thing may have just unleashed a torrent of discontent that the religious thought police won’t be able to suppress. Perhaps.
Or perhaps, this sudden “spontaneous” outpouring of “democracy” may be just what the mullahs need to keep a possible Israeli (or even Israeli-American) military strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities from taking place anytime soon. Who knows?
Just remember; most American journalists and government officials are as likely to be wrong on what’s going on in Iran now as they have always been… understanding the place (as with Afghanistan, or Iraq, or for that matter, most of the world, or even ourselves) requires painstaking study, discussions with people in the know (i.e. from there), and overarching wisdom– none of which is consistent with our five second sound-bite attention spans. So… educate yourselves from as many sources as possible… and take everything with a grain or two of salt, realizing things might be as they seem, or they might not be…
Update [14 June 2009, 19 00 EDT]: As if on cue, it seems, Israel’s hard-ass PM, Bibi Netanyahu gave a major speech in which he endorsed the idea of a rump, demilitarized Palestinian state, with no control of its airspace and its capital somewhere that isn’t Jerusalem. As, other than Bibi and some super-nationalist parties, most Israeli politicians have already endorsed the concept of Palestinian statehood on more generous terms than this supposedly “new” development, this isn’t particularly Earth shattering. Coming as it does, however, right after the Iranian election and turbulent aftermath, it is most interesting… most interesting…
Without even leaving the CNN front-page for my links, right now, we get this lead story, that Supreme Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei “endorses the election results,” which makes sense, since, of course, he almost certainly supervised the rigging of the elections to get these results in the first place. And then, back to Israel, a poll reveals that a slight majority (about 52% in favor, 35% opposed, the rest asleep) of Israelis favor Israel’s bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities. And so…
Action… reaction… more reaction… and more still… Someone seems to know what they are doing… I hope “our side” does as well…
tdog
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