September 14, 2003, Strawberry Fields Forever
Another day in Iraq, another American soldier killed near Fallujah, shortly after the United States apologized profusely for last week's horrifying "friendly fire" incident that killed several Iraqi policemen (and a Jordanian security man). Many Iraqis are rightly angry-- noting that the wary and ill-trained-for-peacekeeping-and-policing American forces tend to shoot first and ask questions later, making such incidents almost inevitable. In short, a messy, bloody, unpleasant and potentially never-ending occupation-- the sort of thing that many protestors (such as... me) before the war fully expected to happen.
Americans, it seems, at least according to this poll reported in the Washington Post do not favor the President's $87 billion blank check request, and insist that even if it is approved, it be paid for by reversing the President's tax cuts. Even worse, perhaps, many in Congress are now placing blame for the Iraq fiasco squarely where it actually lays (besides in the Oval Office, of course): on Don Rumsfeld. If even the man behind the curtain starts to be accountable for this billion dollar a week quagmire, you know things are going badly.
For those of you who will feel the occasion to seize on my lack of patriotism, i.e., my rooting for Bush to fail here, save your breath. I am appalled that we are failing-- but observing failure and rooting for it are not synonimous. The difference between the Clinton and Bush Administrations is that in the former, the facts on the ground actually mattered, and setbacks would result in changing strategies. Recall, for example, Kosovo, where Clinton brilliantly stated there would be no ground troops deployed at the get-go, hampering later actions, until an eventual deployment of ground troops was made (the campaign ended shortly thereafter). With the Bushies, nothing seems to get them to change strategy: instead, they change the rules, or attempt to conceal the facts, or suddenly invent things (forget WMDs-- now its "flypaper"). This is all not good.
The failure to adjust to what it is actually happening will increase the blood and treasure costs of the occupation, and reduce the already extremely unlikely possibility of a "liberal, democratic Iraq". And, unfortunately, anything else will mean either (1) another brutal Middle Eastern dictatorship which will further cement anti-American sentiment as same would have to be in our pocket, (2) an Islamist entity in the Iranian model, or (3) continued chaos, in the Afghan model. None are good results.
Even if it results in his own reelection, I hope Bush turns this situation around and gets Iraq on track to that shining Arab democracy. Even if its an extremely unlikely possibility.
Comments
Hello ... me again!!
Loren B. Thompson, a defense analyst and consultant at the Lexington Institute with ties to the Pentagon said,"What we're really facing in Iraq is a mop-up operation, and as the mop-up continues and as we gradually sharpen our intelligence and train Iraqi security forces, Rumsfeld is going to look better and better. In the end, it will look like he understood the occupation of Iraq better than most of his critics did."
Hmmm... some mop-up. It looks like Bush and the NeoCons and Rummy along with his toy guns and tanks (btw, I think Rummy would have been a better canidate for a doll. Just think of all the accessories ... whole Armies, Robots firing death rays [oops, black budget]) are losing their death grip (as in we are going to scare the carp out of Americans 'til they just nod their heads) on the citizens.
For some reason (ok, cause these guys didn't mention it and we didn't ask) everyone is surprised by the amount of $$$ we need for Iraq. Duh! Shock & Awe people ...
And one of the most shocking aspects is how radioactive Iraq is at present.
Not only are we gifting the Iraqis with a slow cancer death, we are also pinning that medal on the chests of out troops.
Oh ... great discussion going on here!
I thought you might like to check it out. We certainly could use the "Dog's" input.
Granny
Posted by J.Taylor at September 14, 2003 04:58 PM
Seth,
Wandered into this blog via MY. Excellent links to the Israel/Palestinian sites. I'll add this to my lurking areas.
Thanks
Posted by Manish at September 14, 2003 05:15 PM
Granny:
Nothing like a mop-up operation that kills several times as many troops as the actual war, eh?
I was all over the depleted uranium issue around August 4th here: thetalkingdog.com/archives/000360.html
As always, something else that makes me proud to be an American these days, eh?
Unfortunately, the blog world is extremely polarized-- I hope the country itself isn't as polarized. The supporters of this war generally refuse to acknowledge ANYTHING wrong with its aftermat-- its like WMDs? What are those?-- this was a magnanimous effort to liberate the Iraqi people. Those bastards don't seem happy about our efforts? Fuck 'em-this is about flypaper and drawing the terrorists away from North America (and into Iraq-- no wonder the locals love us so much!)
All I'll say is, EVERYBODY-- forget your ideology. The question is what will it take to make this Iraq thing work out NOW. Yes-- opponents of the war (Howard Dean, Wes Clark, ME) were RIGHT-- but our correctness is IRRELEVANT (and probably even counterproductive).
How do we get out of this? Unfortunately, the only way out of this is to secure Iraq first, which will require not less than around 400,000 troops (that's General Eric Shinseki, deposed former 4-star general who dared to say something Rummy didnt like). It'll take a while to raise them internationally-- years if not decades; we will probably have to consider expanding our own recruiting, or possibly a draft. Iraqis will ultimately take over most of this-- but again, years, if not decades.
Once we (for a change) have enough people there, then we will have to start handing over local administrative powers (we can still run the puppet show in Baghdad).
If we want a "free and democratic Iraq", we will have to literally break it up into its constituent parts-- Kurdistan (Turkey will be pissed, as will Russia, and possibly, Iran), the Shiites (Iran will be happy) and the Sunnis (Iran will be unhappy, but the Saudis should be happy) will each get their own country. We can try something like the Swiss canton model, but most likely, we'll have to break up the country.
Fortunately, a free and democratic Iraq is as significant to the Bushistas as "WMDs", or "Saddam-Al Qaeda links". Hence, since its not a concern, we can just look for the most efficient puppet dictator to hold the place together.
I should think by, say, October 2004, that would be well on its way.
Posted by the talking dog at September 14, 2003 05:48 PM
Excellent points about the possible course of the conflict.
Incidentally, regarding depleted uranium, the IAEA report in 2003 concluded there was no significant risk demonstrated yet.
Here's an abstract of the report:
J Environ Radioact. 2003;64(2-3):93-
Properties, use and health effects of depleted uranium (DU): a general overview.
Bleise A, Danesi PR, Burkart W.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Department of Nuclear Science and Applications, Wagramer Strasse 5, P.O. Box 100, A-1400 Vienna, Austria.
Depleted uranium (DU), a waste product of uranium enrichment, has several civilian and military applications. It was used as armor-piercing ammunition in international military conflicts and was claimed to contribute to health problems, known as the Gulf War Syndrome and recently as the Balkan Syndrome. This led to renewed efforts to assess the environmental consequences and the health impact of the use of DU. The radiological and chemical properties of DU can be compared to those of natural uranium, which is ubiquitously present in soil at a typical concentration of 3 mg/kg. Natural uranium has the same chemotoxicity, but its radiotoxicity is 60% higher. Due to the low specific radioactivity and the dominance of alpha-radiation no acute risk is attributed to external exposure to DU. The major risk is DU dust, generated when DU ammunition hits hard targets. Depending on aerosol speciation, inhalation may lead to a protracted exposure of the lung and other organs. After deposition on the ground, resuspension can take place if the DU containing particle size is sufficiently small. However, transfer to drinking water or locally produced food has little potential to lead to significant exposures to DU. Since poor solubility of uranium compounds and lack of information on speciation precludes the use of radioecological models for exposure assessment, biomonitoring has to be used for assessing exposed persons. Urine, feces, hair and nails record recent exposures to DU. With the exception of crews of military vehicles having been hit by DU penetrators, no body burdens above the range of values for natural uranium have been found. Therefore, observable health effects are not expected and residual cancer risk estimates have to be based on theoretical considerations. They appear to be very minor for all post-conflict situations, i.e. a fraction of those expected from natural radiation.
Posted by Manish at September 14, 2003 06:35 PM
Spot on TD. I am pretty much firmly in the critical camp as this war (and indeed US foreign policy within the region in general) was concerned but an American unilateral pullout or defeat would be probably the worst possible scenario imaginable; something I don’t think the anti-war crowd have got a proper handle on yet - at least on a broad enough level. I doubt that Iraq will turn into a liberal democratic polity for two reasons: I am sceptical to what extent it would actually fit into US long-term strategic objectives in the ME (Wolfowitzian rhetoric aside about bringing "peace, liberty and democracy" to the Arabs aside) and secondly as we all know such transformations never succeed when they are simply imposed externally without concomitant internal capacity and desire for change.
What is perhaps most depressing about the alternatives you lay out, is that as regards stability and some semblance of pacification to return to the environs, (1) seems to be the ‘least bad’ option of the pathways on offer. Which is of course not all that far off from what Iraq was like before all this started.
Sigh, plus ca change, eh?
Posted by Conrad Barwa at September 14, 2003 07:52 PM
Hello ... me again!!
Loren B. Thompson, a defense analyst and consultant at the Lexington Institute with ties to the Pentagon said,"What we're really facing in Iraq is a mop-up operation, and as the mop-up continues and as we gradually sharpen our intelligence and train Iraqi security forces, Rumsfeld is going to look better and better. In the end, it will look like he understood the occupation of Iraq better than most of his critics did."
Hmmm... some mop-up. It looks like Bush and the NeoCons and Rummy along with his toy guns and tanks are losing their death grip (as in we are going to scare the carp out of Americans 'til they just nod their heads) on the citizens.
For some reason (ok, cause these guys didn't mention it and we didn't ask) everyone is surprised by the amount of $$$ we need for Iraq. Duh! Shock & Awe people ...
And one of the most shocking aspects is how radioactive Iraq is at present.
Not only are we gifting the Iraqis with a slow cancer death, we are also pinning that medal on the chests of out troops.
Any old way, I am not at all sure there is any hope for us considering how dumbed down we have become.
Posted by J.Taylor at September 14, 2003 10:05 PM
Rats-A-Mundo....
I think I posted that twice. I started out early (well, afternoon) and somehow had two copies hanging out.
Sorry!
I agree on the pullout from Iraq. We are there now and for once we should do what we said we would do, except the liberal democracy part. That should be up to the Iraqis.
But we should help them with the formation of a self-governing body or constitution ... only just to make sure it does not contain any "mein Kampf" laws like the Patriot Act ... the equivalent of Nazi "Night and Fog" Proclamation.
We might as well stop with the , "What were they thinking?" questions. We all know pretty well what Wolfy and Perle and Cheney and the rest of the NeoDudes are thinking ... if not, by my guest.
Start with PNAC then move on to "Rebuilding America's Defenses"
It is a huge .pdf file, but the whole senario is right in there, printed for all to see ... their establishment of permanent American bases all over the world, the control of Space and Cyberspace and the establishment of Missile Defense ... and ... you know ... it goes on and on and makes your heart sick!
And ....
..... the dish ran away with the spoon!
Posted by J.Taylor at September 14, 2003 10:29 PM
Granny:
Much as I love the whole Neocon Hawk conspiracy thing, its just not that complicated.
If it was about that, it could have been done with perfect cover in the few months after 9-11, when the rest of the world could have jumped on board (and WOULD have). Indeed, I argued that Bush should take out Saddam right then and there if he screwed around with weapons inspectors, because after 9-11, it was too dangerous to risk a loose cannon with WMDs like Saddam.
BUT... Bush waited over a year. Why? Security of the USA? Absolutely the OPPOSITE. If Saddam was a real threat, giving him a whole extra year to plan his worst was an act of criminal negligence on the Bush Administration. Which meant he was NOT a threat-- and they KNEW IT ALL ALONG.
But-- by waiting, as they did, they revealed their real motives: play this for domestic political benefit. It worked in '02: Daschle played along, and let these basatards take the senate. NOW, he's playing for the whole enchilada in '04, by showing eveyrone what a tough wartime leader he is. MY ASS.
So once again-- I'd actually be MORE OK if it WAS about the grand PNAC plan-- because perverse as that is, its about AMERICA. Granny dear, this ain't about the EMPIRE-- this one is about the EMPEROR: Bush and the Bushistas personal power grab. We always wondered why Papa Bush wanted to be Prez (or for that matter, pre-9-11 Dubya). Why? POWER FOR ITS OWN SAKE.
These are the most venal bastards to hold power in our country EVER-- they've outdone Nixon. If this WERE about the PNAC plan and the strategic vision shit, I'd almost forgive them.
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